Nearly 1 in 10 new coronavirus cases in the United States is caused by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s BA.2.86 variant. Estimation The prevalence of the highly variant on Monday was nearly triple what officials estimated two weeks ago.
Among the few regions where laboratories have reported sufficient specimens, the prevalence of BA.2.86 is greatest in the Northeast, where 13.1% of cases in the New York and New Jersey area are believed to be caused by this strain.
Monday’s numbers mark the first time the prevalence of BA.2.86 has spiked enough to be listed as a standalone variant in CDC estimates. Scientists first warned about the highly mutated strain. Summer discovery.
“In previous nowcast updates, BA.2.86 was too rare to be viewed separately and was grouped with other BA.2 strains,” the CDC said. Said Monday.
Until now, officials have said that the majority of new coronavirus infections are due to the XBB variant. A herd of closely related descendants of XBB..These include HV.1 and Variants of EG.5 This is currently the mainstream nationwide.
CDC estimates contain large margins of error regarding the prevalence of BA.2.86. The agency said only 4.8%, or up to 15.2%, of circulating SARS-CoV-2 may originate from BA.2.86.
However, this latest estimate (8.8% to November 25th) is effectively three times the estimate from November 11th, when 3.0% of new infections were estimated to have BA.2.86. The CDC typically releases variant estimates every other Friday, but last week’s release was delayed until after Thanksgiving weekend.
“Early predictions rely on examining the propagation trends of a small number of sequences, making them less reliable, especially as the volume of laboratory-based testing for SARS-CoV-2 has declined significantly over time. It is important to note that they tend to be lower,” the agency said.
The World Health Organization also recently strengthened its classification of BA.2.86 and its descendants as “variants of interest” following an increase in cases due to this strain.
Early data on BA.2.86 suggests that it does not appear to cause worse or different outcomes. symptoms The WHO announced in a report on November 21 that it is more contagious than previous strains. Risk assessmentbut noted a “significant increase” in the recent BA.2.86 report.
The CDC said it disagrees with the WHO’s assessment that BA.2.86 poses a likely “low” public health risk, adding that “BA.2.86 is currently causing an increase in infections and hospitalizations in the United States.” It doesn’t look like that,” he added. ”
“This could be the most dominant of these variants, and given the growth rate, it probably could be, but it doesn’t seem to be a game-changer. “The virus becomes dominant,” said Dr. Brendan Jackson, chief of the CDC’s respiratory division. He spoke on a call with health officials Monday about how to combat the virus this season.
This comes as the CDC begins tracking new increases in metrics tracking the spread of coronavirus infections across the United States as we head into the winter.
After weeks of significant slowdown or flattening trends, the CDC Said This month’s numbers are: Emergency department visit The number of cases has started to increase nationwide due to the new coronavirus infection. Almost every region of the country is now seeing at least a small increase.
Some of the regions with the highest growth rates are in the Midwest region It covers Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin, and trends in those regions are approaching levels not seen since early January.
Is it caused by the JN.1 variant?
Since August, the wide range of mutations in BA.2.86 did not appear to be enough for this strain to gain a foothold against XBB and its progeny.A highly mutated variant spread for months, causing only minor damage. Share cases All over the world.
But in recent weeks, scientists have been studying a sudden increase in descendants of BA.2.86 called JN.1, making it the fastest growing subvariant. became. World wide.
Many cases have been reported in europecases caused by BA.2.86 and its descendants are increasing.
french authorities Said On November 13, it was announced that JN.1 was the main cause of the country’s increase in BA.2.86 infections, rising to 10% of the country’s sequences. Initial investigations into JN.1 have so far found no worrying signs compared to other BA.2.86 infections, but a more detailed analysis is underway, they said.
Data for the past few weeks Totaled from The GISAID virus database suggests that one-third of COVID-19 variants reported by U.S. laboratories are JN.1.
“Currently, JN.1 is the most common version of BA.2.86 in the US CDC project BA.2.86, and derivatives like JN.1 will continue to increase as a proportion of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences. ” said CDC spokesperson Jasmine. Reed told CBS News via email.
Last month, the CDC Said Regarding JN.1, we expect that it will continue to be effective in testing and treating COVID-19 infections, and that JN.1 is closely related to BA.2.86 except for changes in the spike protein, They believe that these individuals are enabling the virus to spread more quickly.
Early findings suggest that This season’s coronavirus vaccineRedesigned to target the XBB variant of the virus, it also provides some protection against JN.1.
However, compared to other current or emerging variants, JN.1 was the most resistant to neutralizing antibodies from vaccination or previous infection with XBB.
“Wide application of the updated XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine could confer an even greater population growth advantage to JN.1 and the related BA.2.86, thereby reducing the spread of newly licensed novel coronavirus infections.” This could pose a potential threat to vaccines against infectious diseases,” the authors of the draft study wrote. preprint It has not yet been peer reviewed.
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