there was panel discussion The comment, made 11 years ago at a space conference in Singapore, has become legendary in some parts of the space industry as it revealed Europe’s attitude toward the start-up SpaceX.
The panel included representatives of several launch companies, including Europe-based Arianespace and the US launch company Space X. Midway through the discussion, the moderator asked Arianespace representative Richard Bowles, sales director for Southeast Asia, how the European organisation would respond to the promise of reduced launch costs and reuse with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.
“What I’ve found in the market is that SpaceX is mostly selling dreams, and that’s a good thing. We should all dream,” Bowles responded. “I think a $5 million or $15 million launch is a bit of a dream. Personally, I think reusability is a dream. How do you serve dreams? My answer to dreams is, first of all, don’t wake people up.”
To be fair, at the time Bowles made his remarks, SpaceX had only launched the Falcon 9 five times by mid-2013, but his humility was still noteworthy.
Later in the discussion, Bowles added that the 100 launches per year that SpaceX had started talking about was not “realistic,” and then, in a very paternalistic manner, turned to the SpaceX executives on the panel and said, “You shouldn’t be advocating things that are not realistic.”
SpaceX Senior Vice President Barry Matsumori responded calmly, saying the company’s response would be demonstrated through its actions.
Actions speak louder than words
11 years later, of course, SpaceX teeth That’s more than 100 launches per year, the company’s internal price for a Falcon 9 launch is well under $20 million, and all of this is made possible by the reusability of the rocket’s first stage and payload fairing, each of which has been proven capable of more than 20 flights.
A decade on, one might think that European launchers would have learned their lesson: after all, last year the continent had to resort to launching its prized Euclid space telescope on a Falcon 9 rocket, and this year several Galileo satellites will be launched on Falcon 9 rockets because Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket isn’t yet ready after multiple delays.
Some officials are taking notice. Last year’s honest commentsEuropean Space Agency chief Josef Aschbacher acknowledged that the continent faces a “serious” launch vehicle crisis due to Ariane 6 delays and the emergence of SpaceX’s launch race. “SpaceX has undoubtedly changed the paradigm of the launch vehicle market as we know it,” Aschbacher wrote. “With the reliability of the Falcon 9 and the enticing prospects of Starship, SpaceX continues to completely redefine the world’s access to space and push the boundaries of what’s possible.”
But apparently not everyone got the message.
Next month, the Ariane 6 rocket will finally make its debut. It will probably be a success. When it comes to launch, Europe has superior technological capabilities. However, from day one, the Ariane 6 rocket will be significantly more expensive than the similarly capable Falcon 9 rocket and will not have any provisions for reuse. It will certainly meet Europe’s institutional needs, but it is unlikely to shake up the market or realistically compete with the fully reusable Falcon 9.
Who really needs to wake up?
So what about Starship? If SpaceX can bring it to market, the next-generation rocket would offer a fully reusable booster with five times the launch capacity of the Ariane 6 rocket, at less than half the cost. How could Europe compete? Toni Thorker Nielsen, director of space transportation at the European Space Agency (who works under Aschbacher), said she’s not worried.
“To be honest, I don’t think Starship is going to be a game changer or a real contender,” he said. An interview with SpaceNews“This giant rocket is designed to take humans to the Moon and Mars. If you need to launch a four- or five-ton satellite, Ariane 6 is the perfect choice. Starship is not going to replace Ariane 6.”
In one sense, Torkar Nielsen is right. Starship will not change the way Europe launches small and medium-sized satellites into space. The Ariane 6 rocket, built and launched in Europe, will remain the continent’s mainstay. In fact, some European officials are pressure for mandatory legislation European satellites are launched on European rockets.
But to say Starship won’t be a game-changer is the same escapist attitude Bowles exhibited a decade ago when he joked about not waking up the delusional dreamers. In hindsight, it’s clear that the dreamers weren’t SpaceX or its customers; rather, it was European officials who had convinced themselves that their dominance in commercial launch would continue even without innovation.
While officials slept, they ignored the rise of reusability. They decided that the Ariane 6 rocket should look like its disposable predecessor with solid rocket boosters. Meanwhile, following the rise of the Falcon 9, nearly every new rocket project has significant reusable components built into it. It’s no longer just SpaceX founder Elon Musk saying companies should pursue reuse or perish. Nearly every company is saying so.
Maybe someone should wake up Torkar Nielsen.