CNN
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U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in May, Continued resilience In the country’s labor market.
The number of job openings surged to 8.14 million in May, In April, the figure was revised down to a decrease of 7.91 million people.That’s according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, released Tuesday.
Economists had expected job openings to fall to 7.91 million, according to consensus estimates from FactSet.
Despite the increase in job advertisements, Quite unstable, The May JOLTS report is It marked an important milestone for the U.S. labor market: The ratio of job openings to unemployed people fell to 1.22 for every job seeker, matching the figure in February 2020, one month before the pandemic lockdowns that shocked the global economy.
The ratio has been declining steadily since hitting an all-time high of 2.0. March 2022The JOLTS data shows this.
“This report is another sign that the labor market remains strong,” Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement Tuesday. “So far, there are no signs that job growth will slow this year, consumer purchasing power continues to grow, and the economic expansion looks strong.”
The industries that saw the largest increases in job openings were manufacturing (especially durable goods) and government (federal, state, and local). Real estate and leisure and hospitality saw the largest declines in job openings since April, according to BLS data.
Other seasonally adjusted measures of labor force movement suggest the U.S. job market remains stable, although it has cooled gradually in recent months and remains historically strong.
The estimated number of employed persons rose to 5.76 million from 5.62 million in April, while the number of people fired or quitting jumped to 1.65 million in May from 1.54 million, while the number of people voluntarily quitting rose slightly to 3.46 million from 3.45 million.
Both the employment rate and the job openings rate (as a percentage of total employment) increased in May, but the resignation and firing rates remained unchanged.
Economists are closely watching the job-severance rate, which has held steady at 2.2% for seven straight months, because it acts as a signal of whether workers are willing to try out the job market. When people change jobs, it can typically lead to bigger pay hikes, which could make it harder to contain inflation.
The salary increases offered to job-changers are significantly lower than they were during the “great retirement” period. Newly published analysis From Bank of America.
The firm’s economists analyzed internal client data and found that average wage increases are about half what they were during the peak of pandemic-era job-hopping.
In fact, average wage growth is slightly below 2019 levels, David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute, told CNN.
“People are still changing jobs a little faster than they were before the pandemic, but they’re getting a little slower pay raises when they do,” he said. “This suggests the pendulum is swinging a little bit in favor of businesses and away from workers.”
The labor market appears to be at a crossroads, Nick Bunker, director of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a commentary posted Tuesday.
“The phrase ‘little changed’ was repeated no less than six times in the May JOLTS release, with nearly every major index tracked either moving up or down with limited notable movement,” Bunker wrote. “This short-term stability is good, but the question remains as to whether this period of calm will last or whether more volatility is on the horizon.”
“While current job opening levels are consistent with a healthy, sustainable and balanced market, a continued decline below current levels would soon raise concerns,” he wrote.
This may take some time Interest rate cuts This is to ensure that employers’ demand for workers does not fall too much, he added.
Federal Reserve officials still broadly believe the job market remains strong, allowing the central bank to comfortably keep interest rates at their highest in 23 years while it waits for more evidence that inflation is under control.
But some Fed officials say the job market has lost momentum recently and it’s highly uncertain whether it will remain stable or weaken further.
“If employment starts to collapse or the economy starts to weaken, there are already some warning signs, but that has to be balanced against developments on the price side,” Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday during a meeting hosted by the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal.
“Unemployment is still pretty low, but it’s trending up,” he said.
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, the highest level since January 2022. Still, job growth remained strong in May, with an estimated net gain of 272,000 jobs.
Economists expect job gains to slow in June. As of Tuesday, the FactSet consensus estimate was for a net gain of 189,000.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits, considered an indicator of layoffs, have been trending upward in recent weeks before settling at levels similar to pre-pandemic averages.
“While still low by historical standards, it rose between the May and June employment survey base months and we think job growth could slow this month,” Marisa DiNatale, labor economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in an interview with CNN.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its latest jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.