BENGALURU/WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (Reuters) – India’s bid to become the first to land at the lunar south pole this week and win the space race will see science, national prestige politics and a new frontier: money. is involved.
India’s Chandrayaan 3 is aiming to land at the lunar south pole on Wednesday. If it succeeds, analysts and management expect an immediate boost to the nascent space industry in this South Asian country.
Analysts said Russia’s Luna 25, which launched two weeks ago, was on track to be the first to reach its destination before the lander crashed out of orbit, possibly funding a follow-on mission. It was said to have been taken away.
The seemingly sudden race to reach unexplored regions of the Moon is reminiscent of the 1960s space race between the United States and the Soviet Union.
But now space is the business and the lunar south pole is the prize. Because there’s water ice there, planners hope it can support future lunar colonies, mining operations, and ultimately missions to Mars.
Pushed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is looking to privatize space launches and open up the sector to foreign investment, with the goal of increasing its share of the global launch market by a factor of five within the next decade.
Analysts expect that if Chandrayaan 3 is successful, India’s space sector will be able to capitalize on its reputation for cost-competitive engineering. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) spent just about $74 million on the mission.
By contrast, NASA plans to spend about $93 billion on the Artemis lunar program through 2025, according to the US Space Agency’s Inspector General.
“The moment this mission is successful, it will raise the profile of everyone involved,” said Ajay Lele, a consultant at the Manohar Palikar Institute for Defense Research and Analysis in New Delhi.
“When the world looks at missions like this, they are not looking at ISRO in isolation.”
crisis in russia
Despite Western sanctions and increasing isolation over the Ukraine war, Russia has successfully launched a moonshot. But some experts question its ability to fund a successor to the Luna 25. Russia has not disclosed how much money it spent on the mission.
“The cost of space exploration is being systematically reduced year after year,” said Moscow-based independent space expert and author Vadim Lukashevich.
A recurrence of Luna 25 is “extremely unlikely,” he added, as Russia prioritizes its budget for the war in Ukraine.
Russia had considered joining NASA’s Artemis program through 2021, but instead announced that it would partner with China on its moon program. Little is known about the details of the effort.
China made its first-ever soft landing on the far side of the moon in 2019 and has more missions planned. Space research firm Euroconsult estimates that China will spend $12 billion on its space program in 2022.
NASA playbook
But by opening it up to private funding, NASA provided a strategy for India to follow, officials said.
For example, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is developing a satellite launch business and a Starship rocket to transport NASA astronauts to the moon under a $3 billion contract.
Beyond that deal, Musk said SpaceX will spend about $2 billion on Starship this year.
US space company Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines (LUNR.O) is building a lunar lander that will be launched to the lunar south pole by the end of the year, i.e. in 2024.
And companies like Axiom Space and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin are developing privately funded successors to the International Space Station. Axiom announced Monday that it has raised $350 million from investors in Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
There are still dangers in space. India’s last landing plan failed in 2019, the same year an Israeli startup failed to make the first privately funded moon landing. Japanese startup IceSpace (9348.T) failed to land this year.
“Moon landings, as we see them, are difficult,” said Caltech professor Bethany Ehrman. He is working with NASA on a 2024 mission to map the lunar south pole and its water ice.
“The moon seems to be eating spaceships for the last few years.”
(This article has been refiled to add Reuters Commodity Codes at paragraph 21)
Editing: Kevin Krolicki and Clarence Fernandez
Our criteria: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.