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A Russian spacecraft malfunctioned over the weekend and crashed into the moon. The failed landing program has left experts questioning the future of the country’s lunar ambitions and the geopolitical dynamics underpinning modern space exploration efforts.
The spacecraft Luna 25 lost contact with operators of the Russian space agency Roscosmos on Saturday, August 19, and by Sunday the spacecraft was declared dead.
Initial reports from Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov said the plane had an engine problem that misfired during an attempt to adjust its trajectory in the days before landing.
The failure was a major blow to the space agency’s ambitions. Russia was trying to prove that a private space program that analysts said had faced challenges for decades could still achieve the incredible feats of the 20th-century space race.
“Russia’s Cold War legacies are just legacies unless we can actually bring them to life,” said Victoria Samson, director of the Washington office of the Secure World Foundation, a nonprofit that promotes the peaceful exploration of space. It’s nothing but,” he said.
During the Soviet era, Russia successfully landed seven spacecraft safely on the moon, including the first ever soft landing in 1966.
Borisov admitted that the Soviet successes of the last century cannot be easily replicated.
“We essentially have to master all the technology again – at a new technical level, of course,” he said at the conference. interview told Russian state media on Monday.
Borisov assured that Roscosmos could get back on track. He said the space agency will accelerate the next two lunar missions, Luna 26 and Luna 27, which will give Roscosmos all the science it lost in the Luna 25 failure. .
Still, space policy experts say the Russian government has the power or will to make it happen, especially as Russia faces sanctions over the war in Ukraine and Roscosmos appears to be less important to the Kremlin. I’m wondering if there is.
“Even if they say they will continue[the Luna program]it doesn’t necessarily make sense at this point. And the question is, can they continue? They don’t have the ability to continue. Is there one?” said Robert Pearson, former ambassador to Turkey, former U.S. Foreign Secretary, and founding member of the Duke University Office of Space Diplomacy.
The consequences of this failure raise questions on the world stage as to whether Russia is “getting serious about the space race” at all, Pearson added.
The changing landscape of civic space
The failure of Russia’s lunar landing program comes amid a rush of other lunar exploration programs, largely planned by countries not considered traditional space powers. Luna 25 is flying alongside India’s Chandrayaan 3 spacecraft and will attempt a lunar landing as early as Wednesday.
that’s all dozens of other countries There are also plans for lunar missions over the next few years, including the US’s ambitious Artemis III, which could land astronauts on the moon as early as 2025.
“I think this… speaks to how much space exploration has come down in cost,” Samson said. “It’s still not cheap by any means, but it’s become a little more reasonable. …I think that’s why more countries can[try]it.”
But while the loss of Luna 25 may be widely seen as a setback for Russia’s space ambitions, it’s worth noting that landing a spacecraft on the Moon remains a very difficult feat. .
A final attempt by the Indian spacecraft Chandrayaan 2 ended in failure. And since 2019, two other commercial spacecraft have also crash-landed.
But Russia, with its extensive Soviet experience, probably had different expectations.
Pearson added that if the Indian space agency succeeds in landing the spacecraft safely, “it could highlight the loss of prestige, influence and technological prowess on the part of Russia.” .
The mission was also noted for how the country’s civilian space program is evolving. Samson said Roscosmos has been plagued by problems in recent years, including funding, quality control issues and allegations of corruption.
The space agency has also faced counterattack from the West since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. For example, the European Space Agency was supposed to cooperate with Roscosmos on the Luna 25 mission and some future exploration projects, but Europe pulled out. partnership after the invasion of Ukraine.
Questions now swirl as to how China, Russia’s closest modern space partner, will react to Luna 25’s failure.
The two countries had announced that they would cooperate in establishing the International Lunar Research Station, a lunar base to counter plans by the United States and its allies to build permanent outposts on the moon under NASA’s Artemis program.
Samson pointed out that China, the only country in the 21st century to soft-land a probe on the moon, has already downplayed Russia’s role in the project.
After the Luna 25 mission, “China must be really wondering what they’ve been charged with,” Samson said.
Still, both Samson and Pearson noted that Russia continues to play an important role on the international stage. The country is a major US partner on the International Space Station, but Russia has previously threatened to withdraw from its operations. For many years, after NASA withdrew from its space shuttle program, Russia was also the only country allowed to send astronauts to and from the space station. (SpaceX has now taken over that function in the US.)
The Luna 25 probe was intended to land on the South Pole of the Moon. The area is where India aims to host its Chandrayaan 3 lander, and where NASA is planning astronaut and future robotic missions.
Widespread interest in the lunar south pole can be attributed to one of its key features: water ice. Scientists believe that large amounts of water are frozen and stored in shadowy craters near Antarctica.
Water ice could be very valuable for the future of space exploration. This precious resource could be converted into rocket fuel for deep space missions or into drinking water for astronauts on long-term missions.
“That’s the big driving force behind why we’re going to Antarctica, and they’re kind of part of the ‘Space Race Part II,'” said an assistant professor at American University. Dr. Angela Marciac said. Lunar and Planetary Institute, Arizona, in an interview on Aug. 18.
Antarctica has not been explored as deeply as other regions because it is difficult to reach due to orbital dynamics. This gives Russia, and all other countries with lunar ambitions, an important reason for clear scientific and strategic interest.
But Pearson wondered why Russia chose to head straight for Antarctica for its first lunar exploration in nearly 50 years.
“All they had to do was land (somewhere on the moon) and show the world that they were in the space race. Yes,” Pearson said of Russia. “I think they took the last resort when they should have chosen the safer option.”
Which countries reach the moon and when can affect how scientists use the data they collect.
It’s not exactly clear how information sharing works.
For example, India has signed the following agreements: NASA’s Artemis Accordsa document detailing the agreed rules for lunar exploration, including a commitment to sharing scientific data.
Russia, on the other hand, has not signed.
But Samson cautioned against characterizing these lunar missions as races, suggesting that those involved are antagonistic. It’s hard to know exactly what dynamics will come up, but the Moon is a big place and there’s room for everyone to participate.
“My concern is that looking at this in an aggressive, hostile way might create the very situation that we are trying to avoid.” she said.