Only about 20 astronauts are enough to build and maintain a Martian colony, new research suggests, compared to previous estimates of about 100, and even this small number could sustain a Martian habitat. It is
Researchers, including those from George Mason University in the United States, have reviewed previous research and found that a self-sustaining Mars colony could require between 100 and 500 astronauts, based on a variety of factors. I calculated.
Their new analysis, which has not yet been peer-reviewed and has a preprint on arXiv, additionally takes into account human social and psychological behavior and the continuity of interactions between people with new estimates. I’m here.
The findings suggest that just 22 people may be enough to build and maintain a space colony on Mars.
Decades of exploration of the Red Planet by space agencies around the world have conclusively revealed that building a human settlement on Mars will be an incredibly complex engineering problem.
Scientists say the harsh nature of Mars requires that any habitat built there should be nearly self-sufficient.
Besides mining some basic minerals and water, future Mars settlers will use advanced technologies such as splitting Martian water into oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for fuel to replenish the planet. and reliance on local replenishment of essentials.
Future colonists will also have to endure psychological and human behavioral challenges, researchers say.
In a new study, data scientists sought to better understand the behavioral and psychological interactions of future Mars colonists.
“We seek to not only suggest the minimum initial population size needed to create a stable colony, but also to identify areas to consider when planning a colony,” the researchers said in their study. I am writing in
For this analysis, the scientists analyzed previous data on high-performance teams operating in isolated, high-stress environments such as submarines, Arctic exploration, and the International Space Station, and found that between agents with four different psychological profiles, We have modeled the kinds of interactions that occur.
They used a form of computer simulation called agent-based modeling (ABM), which is used to analyze complex systems and predict the emergence of larger patterns and phenomena with simple rules and behaviors.
The researchers will use this model to simulate the survival of human settlements on Mars under different operating conditions, including when global events such as Earth accidents and resupply delays affect colonies. did.
Scientists have identified various individual-level factors such as metabolism, resilience, skill and level, and stress, as well as one of four psychological traits: neurotic, reactive, social, or cooperative. We have created a model for Mars settlers with this in mind.
The simulation also took into account the environmental variables that the settlers would encounter, the study notes.
As modeled Mars colonists sleep, move, interact, produce or consume resources, they may lose health if they don’t have enough resources, and even die and be removed from the simulation.
We ran the model five times over 28 years with simulation initial population sizes ranging from 10 to 170 and found that “an initial population size of 22 is the minimum required to maintain a viable colony size over the long term.” I understand.
The researchers also found that ‘agreeable’ personality types with high overall empathy were more likely to survive, while those with a ‘nervous’ psychology had a much higher mortality rate.