“We’re seeing stormy rains followed by many days of clear skies, which the trees really like,” he said. “It thrives very well when there is a lot of rainfall and sunny weather, as the leaves dry out and the water is drained.”
Like Goldilocks, trees are picky eaters and grow at “just right” temperatures. If it gets too dry, the leaves will change color too quickly and quickly dry out and fall off the tree. If it gets too wet, it will be attacked by fungi and insects. Primack said this summer’s middle ground of moderate temperatures and healthy rainfall will be key to a healthy and exciting foliage season.
He predicted that there will be “brighter, more concentrated colors” this fall compared to last fall’s foliage season.
“Last year it was very widespread and not very strong at one time, partly because the summer was dry,” he said. “Expect to see a pretty dramatic spectacle, with all the leaves changing colors at once.”
Autumn foliage expert Jim Sarge reported in his annual report that the best places to see fall foliage are likely to be north of Maine and east toward Acadia. In his report, Sarge wrote that Southern New England “could be another good year.”
Joshua Hullman, forest health program manager for the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation, said this year’s leaves look very healthy.
“So far all the trees are in very good shape,” he said in an interview. “Healthy trees produce good foliage.”
Hallman said it’s a bit too early to make an accurate forecast because it’s hard to account for possible sudden weather changes and stressors.
“If the nights get cooler and the days are sunny, the autumn leaves will get better and better,” he says.
A potential stressor is an earlier-than-normal frost, which usually occurs in late September to early October. However, there are no such concerns at this time.
“If the leaves change appearance due to some kind of stress, I would be in trouble, but I haven’t seen anything like that this year,” he says. “That said, it’s hard to predict at this stage of the game.”
For Matthew Hebert, owner of New England Excursions, any stress factor on the leaves can affect your business. Throughout the fall, Hebert’s company runs tours around New England that focus solely on the foliage.
“Every year there are some concerns,” he said. “I make it clear to my guests that most of the time, even if it’s been hit by drought or lack of foliage, there could be some bare ground.”
In such cases, Hébert offers the option of rebooking for the next year free of charge. His company runs his one tour a day for about 25 consecutive days. Each tour has approximately 24 participants, all of whom travel throughout New Hampshire and Vermont just to see the fall foliage.
Hullmann and Primac believe the peak of autumn foliage will be in late September or early October this year, and if that’s true for Hébert, who added some early tours in the last week of September this year. would be profitable. However, both experts cautioned that predicting the exact peak could be difficult.
“There are many different types of trees and shrubs in the forest, and they respond differently to each,” says Primack. “It’s hard to predict exactly what will happen in the fall, but there are a lot of different species, some that give off really nice colors no matter what happens.”
Ellie Wolfe can be reached at ellie.wolfe@globe.com.follow her @eliew0lfe.