The Taliban-run government’s ambitions are driven, at least in part, by necessity. The Taliban’s crackdown on women’s rights has worsened their pariah status, and efforts to seize control of Afghanistan’s central bank reserves held overseas and secure Western funding have stalled. Before the takeover, foreign aid covered three-quarters of public spending, but the Taliban said it relies primarily on domestic revenue and customs to finance projects.
Deputy Economy Minister Abdul Latif Nazari acknowledged in an interview that these fiscal constraints limit the scope of government projects. “But we are on the right path, a path that will lead us to self-sufficiency,” he said.
However, the economic situation continues to deteriorate for Afghans. The number of Afghans in need of humanitarian assistance has increased by about 60% since 2021 and now accounts for more than two-thirds of the population, according to the United Nations.
And there are a lot of challenges. Pakistan, Afghanistan’s largest trading partner, has grown dissatisfied with the Kabul government and is willing to destroy economic ties for political purposes. Meanwhile, cash-strapped Afghan business owners and other taxpayers say their savings for the Taliban government’s plans are running out.
Afghan economist Omar Joya says that unless the Taliban can achieve “economic growth, employment, reduced poverty levels, and enough livelihoods for people to meet at least their basic needs,” “self-sufficiency itself is not possible.” It doesn’t mean anything.”
According to an assessment conducted before the Taliban took power, Taliban officials say their priority is to expand oil extraction with reserves that could eventually meet domestic demand. One of Afghanistan’s largest oil fields, located in the Amu Darya Basin in northern Afghanistan, could more than triple production in the coming months with new wells, officials predicted.
They are also rushing to exploit the country’s vast resources of lithium ore and other minerals, which the Pentagon estimated in 2010 could be worth nearly $1 trillion. Afghan authorities announced earlier this year that they had signed seven mining contracts worth $6.5 billion. In investment.
It could be several years before large-scale mining can begin. If that happens, the Taliban say ongoing infrastructure projects will be essential for exporting coal, minerals and vegetables.
In the landlocked country’s west, rail links with Iran are being repaired, raising the possibility that Afghan freight trains will head to Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Taliban officials said they had just completed repairs to the Saran Tunnel in northern Afghanistan, which could ease movement between central and northern Afghanistan and boost trade with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. It has said.
During years of war, long-distance trucking in Afghanistan was hampered by Taliban attacks and military checkpoints where extortion was rampant, but a more reliable road network could help revive this commerce. There is.
“Afghanistan is standing on its own two feet,” said Shir Baz, a mining and industry representative and CEO of one of the country’s largest printing companies, which until recently produced NATO leaflets. Kaminzada said.
But Kaminzada acknowledged that there are still reminders of the country’s international isolation. He complained that the Western manufacturers that once supplied his factories with equipment and the banks that facilitated his payments now shunned his company.
He blamed much of the chaos on Pakistan. Afghanistan’s industry is rising from the ashes, he said. “They’re scared.”
The more Afghan officials seek autonomy, the more it becomes clear how dependent the country remains on its neighbors. This fall, trucks carrying produce were stopped multiple times at the border as they headed to Pakistan. Pomegranates and onions rot in the sun as politicians trade accusations.
Pakistan’s leadership has accused the Afghan Taliban of harboring militants who have been killing Pakistan in recent months. Angered, Islamabad expelled hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees, seized Afghan imports, and imposed restrictions on cross-border trade.
The effects of political tensions were evident on a recent afternoon at Kabul’s customs office, which processes imports and exports to and from Pakistan.
Many of the warehouses were only half full when trucks carrying goods arrived at the gates. Ahmad Khalid Rahimi, a 45-year-old customs official, was quick to explain that empty shelves are in no way a reflection of the economy, but rather the efficiency of customs. “Everything is being processed very quickly,” Rahimi asserted.
“Why do you lie?” whispered an irritated worker who was standing nearby. “We don’t have enough supplies these days.”
The gap between the government’s ambitions and reality is clear at the Millat steel factory, an hour away on the outskirts of Kabul, where power goes out for about six hours at 4pm every day, including cranes and observation towers.
When the factory, which is the centerpiece of the Taliban’s infrastructure program, reopened last year, it hired hundreds of workers. However, the factory has been suffering from power shortages in recent months.
The Taliban want to use solar energy to make the country’s power grid self-sufficient. But the Milat steel plant will likely have to contend with the electricity demands of more than 5 million Kabul residents in the coming years and the constraints of a power grid that has relied on imported power for decades.
Despite high demand for the factory’s output, Milat Steel recently had to lay off 150 of its 500 employees, said Nasir Ahmad Hakmal, 35, who oversees production. said.
Taliban officials primarily blame the West for a number of challenges. In an interview, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid singled out the United States, which froze $7 billion in Afghanistan’s central bank assets after the Taliban takeover. “First they occupied our country. And now they are occupying our protected areas,” Mujahid said.
But Afghanistan’s new partner could also pose challenges. Some Chinese companies stand to reap windfall profits from lithium and other natural resources, but Beijing’s relationship with the Taliban remains limited. Afghanistan focuses much of its aid efforts on Iran, but longstanding border tensions over water shortages have made political relations between the two countries unpredictable.
Meanwhile, taxes, fees and licenses have become such a burden for some Afghans that they are considering giving up their businesses.
Ismail Hotak, 25, founded a commercial real estate agency in a Kabul suburb last year. Even though his business is in dire straits, he continues to be burdened with taxes and unexpected fees he didn’t know existed.
“If the authorities ask for more money, I will close my shop,” he said.
Many of these fees existed before the Taliban takeover, but they were not as strictly enforced. Corrupt officials “can cut costs if we pay them directly. Most of it goes into their own pockets,” recalls Sahib Khan Ansari, 48, a steel distributor in Kabul.
Mr. Ansari said he appreciated the decline in corruption and increase in infrastructure investment under the Taliban regime.
But he said the only thing that would make the economy flourish by paving the way for foreign aid and investment would be reopening girls’ schools.
Mirwais Mohammadi and Lutfullah Kashmiyar contributed.