Although early in the quarter, the Atlanta Fed Tracker continues to show strong Q3 growth, and the trend is undeniable. The latest update raises the GDPNow metric from 5.0% to 5.8%.
“Following this morning’s U.S. Census Bureau housing starts report and the Federal Reserve’s industrial production report, our outlook for third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private gross domestic investment growth is 4.4. %, from 8.8% to 4.8% and 11.4%, respectively,” the release reads.
The Fed probably won’t hike rates in September, but if it gets growth above 4% in the third quarter, we expect a rate hike in November. The grounds for a US dollar breakout also continue to grow as evidence of a slowdown in other regions is mounting.