Taking advantage of the strong data, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen delivers a historic speech in Chicago on Thursday aimed at defending the administration’s economic record so far and beginning to outline her plans for a second-term agenda. In these remarks, Yellen will rebuke forecasters who “thought last year’s recession was inevitable.” The administration has been eager to celebrate lower gas prices, a jump in consumer sentiment, rising wealth compared to pre-pandemic levels, a declining gap between rural and urban unemployment, caps on the prices of some drugs, and some other signs of economic improvement. .
“Although some forecasters thought a recession last year was inevitable, President Biden and I did not. “Instead of contracting, the economy has continued to grow, driven by American workers and President Biden’s economic strategy,” Yellen is expected to say, according to excerpts of her remarks released by the Treasury Department.
Biden also issued a statement after Thursday’s report on rising GDP, saying: “Wages, wealth and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic. “This is good news for American families and American workers.”
The administration’s stance comes amid a broader rethink of US economic policy, which once seemed to be former President Donald Trump’s most effective weapon in the 2024 presidential campaign. Although Republicans remain optimistic that the economy remains a powerful message – especially given to the administration’s initial attempts to mitigate price rises in 2021 and 2022 – the GOP’s economic case has certainly become more difficult, with inflation falling from about 9 percent to nearly 3 percent. percent.
Some analysts stress that risks remain for the economy, and there is still a chance that inflation will accelerate.
“There’s no doubt that the data at the end of this morning was fantastic,” said Stephen Meiran, who served as an economic analyst at the Treasury Department in the Trump administration. “The economy has embarrassed the people who called for a recession, and it has embarrassed the people who called for an early end to inflation.” “Very.” But it’s too early to celebrate yet. Inflation risks are real, and recession risks are still real. It’s hard to imagine that an economy can have tight labor and housing markets and not see real inflation risks.
However, the White House has become more assertive in its messaging on the economy. On Thursday, the White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing that the “leading” index of leading economic forecasters badly misjudged the direction of the economy, forecasting inflation and unemployment rates to be much higher than they turned out to be.
“The data tell a compelling story of an economy that has dramatically defied expectations, and where persistently tight labor markets and easing price pressures are supporting macroeconomic growth,” the report said.
revision
An earlier version of this article’s subtitle on the Washington Post’s home page incorrectly stated that the employment rate is declining. Unemployment is declining. Subtitle corrected.