Britain is heading towards stagflation. The UK’s inflation rate is almost double that of the US, unemployment is gradually increasing, and perhaps most importantly, growth is stagnant.
The best news Britain has is that it has avoided the technical definition of a recession. Some will see this as cause for celebration – especially given the doomsday predictions he made from the IMF and others earlier in the year. But the fact that the economy remains on the right side of the recession line is not much to be proud of.
Are Americans too demanding and expecting better economic conditions than they currently have? Or are expectations simply so dismally low that the UK government is waiting to celebrate some sort of victory against GDP growth below 1%?
Wherever the answer lies, it is clear that there are significant opportunities for further growth reforms on both sides of the Atlantic.
Policy announcements are already being made in the UK with the general election in mind, but the process has not yet begun and there is still time for parties to present pro-growth policies to voters.
But in America, a much longer process is well underway, with Republican candidates (save for Donald Trump, who declined to attend) holding debates across the country to lay out their vision for the country. is on stage.
Unfortunately, my mind is elsewhere. Between the shadow of Trump, the seductive lure of culture war issues, and yesterday’s battles (including some kind of abortion ban across the United States), Republican presidential candidates are trying to address voters’ concerns about the economy and how it’s doing. I couldn’t find the time to recognize it properly. Might deal with that.
That’s a shame: Trump currently leads Biden in key swing stages including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. (Biden is leading in the state.)
But the real insight from this latest poll is that while Trump may lead Biden by a few percentage points, “regular Republicans” are more than 14 points (Pennsylvania), up to 18 Point (Arizona State) is also in the lead.
What does it mean to be a “regular Republican”? This is debatable, but it almost certainly includes a nod to the Republican Party’s history of voters holding fiscal responsibility and working tirelessly on the economy. Biden’s fragile, sugary goodness isn’t enough in America – even though Rachel Reeves’ equivalent might be in Britain.
Of course, in the UK, it would be a luxury to be in a position to have this discussion.