Washington DC
CNN
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Community colleges provide post-secondary education at a much lower cost than four-year universities. But even as employers across the country struggle to find qualified workers, community college enrollment has barely begun to recover from two decades of steady decline. even steeper diving When the Covid-19 pandemic occurred.
Things are finally looking up for community colleges, with enrollment increasing for the spring and fall semesters, according to the National Student Clearinghouse. But if that recovery is not sustained, there could be economic consequences in the coming years, including labor shortages in certain industries and consolidation among two-year schools.
Demand for certain jobs, such as electricians and medical assistants, is expected to remain stable or even increase in the coming years. Community colleges offer training programs and degrees for just those types of jobs.
a report Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce predicts that by 2031, “72% of jobs in the United States will require higher education and/or training.”
However, enrollment at two-year schools remains well below pre-pandemic levels. The situation is similar at four-year colleges, where enrollment has steadily declined, a trend that has worsened during the pandemic.
There are several possible reasons why enrollment, particularly at community colleges, has declined so sharply. One reason is that the U.S. labor market has been strong in recent years, arguing that some students are opting out of school to take advantage of the abundance of high-paying jobs.
Another possible reason is that the increased demand for jobs that require a bachelor’s degree may cause students to transfer from community colleges or simply choose a four-year school in the first place. there is.
There is no clear answer to the long-term decline in enrollment, but it could also be due to the strength of the job market even before the pandemic. According to government data, the unemployment rate in 2019 was historically low and there were plenty of jobs available that year.
Community college remains affordable, but some students simply don’t attend it. The average cost of tuition and fees for local residents at two-year public community colleges was $3,860 for the 2022-2023 academic year, according to the College Board.
Approximately 11 million students were enrolled in community colleges in 2010, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics. That dropped to 6.7 million in the 2021-2022 school year. It is widely believed that community college enrollment increased in the aftermath of the Great Recession because people decided to get an education while weathering the recession in hopes of landing a good job once the economy began to recover. Understood.
The National Student Clearinghouse reported in October that community college enrollment rose 4.4% this fall, accounting for nearly 60% of this semester’s undergraduate enrollment increase. The education nonprofit said community colleges are “beginning to recover from the pandemic.”
However, the key word there is “beginning”. Community college enrollment nationwide decreased significantly in 2021 and 2022.
Gad Lebanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, said the decline at the time may have been due to students enrolled in two-year colleges, perhaps just staying on without graduating, or simply enrolling themselves. It is highly likely that the student’s admission was canceled based on his decision. Thanks to the recent boom in the labor market, you should get a job instead.
Job growth this year was led by employers in the health care, government, hospitality, professional services and construction industries, according to Labor Department data.
There are many jobs that don’t require a degree, and clearly many workers are willing to take them. However, demand for jobs that require a degree or some form of technical training is expected to increase in the future, as they typically command higher wages.
Here’s the bad news for community colleges. The Georgetown report also asserts that “fast-growing industries require workers with disproportionately higher levels of education than slower-growing industries.”
The industry’s demand for workers is also high, so this could be bad for community colleges if this high demand for workers with bachelor’s degrees is expected to continue to increase.
“We’re seeing more middle-skill jobs and opportunities, especially as it relates to infrastructure jobs,” said Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown’s Education and Workforce Center.
“If the number of people enrolling in community college declines again, fewer and fewer people may be able to obtain associate degree programs and post-high school type jobs such as health care, food, personal services, and truck driving. , that’s worrying,’ and production,” she said, adding that these types of jobs account for about a third of all U.S. employment.
Recall that community college enrollment has declined significantly in recent years with the exception of 2023.
Employers face labor shortages when there aren’t enough workers willing to be trained to repair electrical wiring, drive trucks hundreds of miles, operate forklifts, or help dentists clean patients’ teeth. There is a possibility that you will have to deal with it. Small businesses continue to report difficulty finding qualified talent, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’ monthly survey.
Omari Swinton, an economics professor at Howard University in Washington, said severe labor shortages could ultimately lead to fewer services being provided.
Swinton himself has seen the effects of a troubling labor shortage firsthand.
“My dentist can’t find dental assistants. My dentist can’t find dental assistants because there are only a few schools in Maryland that offer that training, and enrollment is declining. They keep canceling my reservations because they don’t have one,” Swinton said.
“People in such industries may demand more money to work, and companies need to decide whether they are willing to pay workers more money because… Because at this point, you can only pay your workers this much before their time is no longer worth it.” And try to do those tasks anymore. ” he said.
Enrollment declines are troubling for community colleges and other institutions of higher education because of their fiscal implications. This means less revenue from tuition fees, which can impact campus growth plans, the amount of services offered, the ability to hire more faculty, and more.
Lebanon said if a community college finds itself in a difficult financial situation, merging with another two-year university could be a practical solution.
That’s exactly what happened in Connecticut this year.
Due to financial difficulties and declining enrollment, Connecticut’s 12 community colleges officially consolidated this summer to create the “Connecticut State Community Colleges.” The plan has been in the works for several years and is expected to save more than $40 million.
“This merger is designed to ensure we meet the needs of the students we serve. With this vote of confidence from an accredited body, we are committed to providing better, more accessible educational options. We are more confident than ever that we are in a position to provide improved and improved services,” said Terrence Chen, president of the Connecticut State University System. In June.
That in itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially if it means community colleges can relieve budget pressure.