First lady Jill Biden tested positive for the coronavirus on Monday. New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced: send We will provide high-quality masks and rapid testing to school districts that require them. Kentucky and Texas have already closed schools due to outbreaks of respiratory illnesses among students and staff.
The coronavirus is spreading again. literally.
Cases have been steadily rising since July, and reports of worrying new variants have raised fears that the virus will return to circulation this fall and winter. But experts gave reassurances in interviews that the country would not return to the nightmarish scenario of the past few years.
There is no evidence that any of the circulating variants cause more severe disease or evade immunity so well as to render vaccines ineffective. Gigi Gromvall, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said that although hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week by week, the numbers remain low.
“These increases are more worrying in statistics than in reality,” Dr. Gronvall said.
The number of people hospitalized with coronavirus infections in the week ending August 26 increased by about 16% compared to the previous week. However, the number of new admissions was 17,400, less than half of the same period last year and about one-fifth of 2021.
Although the number of deaths due to the new coronavirus increased by nearly 18% from the previous week, the number remains relatively low, with an average weekly death toll of about 3,000 in late August 2022 and a weekly average of about 3,000 in late August 2021. The average number of visitors per week in August was just over 600, compared to 14,000. .
“What we’re seeing is that the virus continues to evolve, causing waves of infection, hopefully with mostly mild severity,” said Dr. Dan Baruch, director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical. That’s true,” he said. In the heart of Boston.
Some experts said the current numbers suggest Americans need to adjust their behavior to their own risk.
Those most vulnerable to the coronavirus – the elderly, pregnant women and those with weakened immune systems – should take maximum precautions, including wearing a mask most or all of the time and avoiding crowded indoor spaces. may choose.
People at reduced risk may need to take precautions in some situations, especially if they could transmit the virus to more vulnerable people. Dr. Gronvall said stay up-to-date on COVID-19 vaccinations and receive the antiviral treatment paxlobid if you’ve been infected and are eligible.
Most scientists are cautiously optimistic, but two factors make it difficult to predict what will happen in the coming months: vaccines and variants.
The Biden administration said people should expect to receive one dose of the coronavirus vaccine each fall, similar to the annual flu vaccine, rather than periodic boosters. This year’s coronavirus vaccine could be available as early as next week, when advisers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are expected to review the data and issue recommendations for use.
(Regulatory authority european union and uk It has already approved the latest vaccine, made by Pfizer-BioNTech, for use in everyone six months of age and older.)
The shots will be provided free to most Americans through private insurance companies and new insurers. federal program For people without insurance. But it’s unclear how many Americans will choose to get vaccinated. As of May 2023, less than half Among adults 65 and older, only about 1 in 5 U.S. adults overall opted for the bivalent booster shot offered last fall.
The updated vaccine targets XBB.1.5, the virus variant that was dominant earlier this year when federal officials had to decide on the formulation. But since then, the subspecies has been replaced by several close relatives.
Limited surveillance suggests that the most prevalent variant currently is EG.5, nicknamed Eris. account of Approximately 22 percent of cases. EG.5 is widely distributed in many European countries, including the UK, and also in Asia.maybe more contagious It is more powerful than XBB.1.5 and can evade the body’s immune defenses, but only partially.
“That’s why we don’t see EG.5 spreading around the world at an unusual rate,” said Yunlong Cao, a researcher at Peking University who analyzed the variant.
EG.5 and another virus variant, FL.1.5.1, which accounts for about 15 percent of U.S. cases, both have genetic mutations that allow them to not only evade the immune system but also to be more tightly linked to humans. It may help you bond. cell.
But Andrew Reed, an evolutionary microbiologist at Pennsylvania State University, said there’s nothing unexpected or alarming about the coronavirus acquiring new mutations.
“If a mutation gives you an interesting new trick that gives you an advantage, it’s going to show up in a lot of different places,” Dr. Reed says. “Everything we’re seeing is exactly in line with what you would expect a virus to evolve in a situation where a new virus enters a new host population.”
However, one variant initially caused shock among scientists. BA.2.86, commonly known as Pillora.
“This virus caught people’s attention because it appeared in 10 countries at the same time and contained more than 30 mutations in its spike protein,” Dr. Baroush said. “So there was great concern that this was a dramatic shift toward increased antibody evasion.”
But recent data from several teams, including one led by Dr. Barosh, have put those concerns to rest. The study showed that BA.2.86 does not evade immunity from infection or vaccination.
Additionally, the spread of BA.2.86 is so small that it is barely included in the CDC catalog of variants circulating in the country so far. Still, “BA.2.86 is likely to continue to evolve, so I think we need to continue to be vigilant,” Dr. Barosh said.
Each mutation “needs to be vigorously and rigorously evaluated as soon as possible,” he said.