Brexit is expected to leave the British economy £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report from leading economists.
The scathing study by Cambridge Econometrics found that the decision to leave the EU has already cost the UK £140 billion.
The shocking results put the extent of the damage much higher than previous warnings by independent economists that Brexit had caused the economy to lose £33 billion.
The new report warns that Britain will continue to have lower investment, weaker trade and fewer jobs in the next decade as a result of being outside the bloc.
The Cambridge study – commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan – said the country would have three million fewer jobs by 2035 than if it remained within the EU.
Economists estimate that Brexit will be responsible for a massive 10 per cent hit to Britain’s gross value added – the total value of goods and services – by the same date.
Using OBR data and data and forecasts based on the organisation’s data, the report predicts that UK gross value added will reach £2,771 billion by 2035.
But this is £311bn less than the £3,082bn GVA figure the country would have reached without deciding to leave the EU.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan: The report showed that Britain’s exit from the European Union is not succeeding
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Economists worked to isolate the “Brexit effect” from other factors such as Covid and the Ukraine war in their model.
They found that Britain will have 32 per cent less investment, 16 per cent fewer imports and 5 per cent fewer exports by the middle of the next decade than it would have had without Brexit.
The study also found that Brexit would further widen the productivity gap between the capital and the rest of the country.
Shyamoli Patel, chief economist at Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster had Brexit not happened.
“Looking ahead, we expect Brexit to continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies over the medium term.”
The majority of voters believe that Brexit has harmed the economy
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The Labor Mayor of London said the results showed that “it is now clear that Brexit is not working”.
In a speech at Mansion House on Thursday evening, he said: “The cost of the Brexit crisis can only be resolved if we take a mature approach and if we are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours.”
Khan – who called for discussion of rejoining the EU single market – added: “I agree with the shadow foreign secretary. [David Lammy]“Who said we urgently need to build a closer relationship with the European Union.”
However, Labor has insisted that it will keep Britain out of the single market and customs union if it wins power in the 2024 general election.
Leader Sir Keir Starmer has made a vague promise to seek a new veterinary agreement to ease current trade friction, and to consider Boris Johnson’s trade deal when it is reviewed in 2025.
The latest Opinium poll showed that more than 60 per cent of voters felt Brexit had had a bad impact on prices in shops, and 53 per cent said it had hampered the UK’s ability to control immigration.