Children play with a ball after spreading rice for drying at a rice mill on the outskirts of Kolkata, India, on January 31, 2019. Photograph: Rupak D Chaudhuri/Reuters. Obtain licensing rights
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – An unusual drought in August has affected grain and oilseed crops in Asia, with a strengthening El Nino phenomenon and forecasts of lower rainfall in September threatening to disrupt supplies.
While wheat production forecasts are being revised downward due to dry weather in Australia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the grain, low monsoon rains are expected to lead to record declines in crop sizes, including rice, in India, the world’s largest exporter of the grain, he says. Meteorologists. Analysts said.
Meanwhile, insufficient rains in Southeast Asia could reduce supplies of palm oil, the world’s most widely used vegetable oil, while extreme weather in China, the largest importer of corn and soybeans, puts food production at risk.
“We are in for severe El Nino weather in several parts of the world, and it will intensify towards the end of the year,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at US-based Maxar Technologies, a climate data analysis platform.
“The weather pattern in Asia will be associated with dry El Niño conditions.”
The El Niño phenomenon is a warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which usually leads to drier conditions in Asia and heavier rains in parts of North and South America.
Lack of rain in India and Australia
India’s monsoon rains, which are crucial for summer crops such as rice, sugarcane, soybeans and corn, are expected to be the weakest in eight years.
“The impact of El Niño is much greater than we expected,” a senior Indian Meteorological Department official said. “This month will end with a deficit of more than 30%, making it the driest August on record. El Niño will also impact rainfall in September.”
India, which accounts for 40% of global rice exports, has reduced shipments, pushing prices to their highest levels in 15 years.
Analysts have revised Australian wheat production estimates downward for the first time in four years, as key growing regions did not see sufficient rain in August.
“Wheat production will be three million tonnes lower than our initial estimate of 33 million tonnes,” said Olly Hoey, director of advisory services at agricultural brokerage Aikon Commodities. “If the drought continues into September, we are looking at a lower crop.”
Australia has seen abundant wheat production for three consecutive years, boosting supplies to importers such as China, Indonesia and Japan.
Tropical Southeast Asia is suffering from drought
Less than normal rain fell on rice, palm oil, sugarcane and coffee crops in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia and Thailand being the most affected.
“Very little rain has fallen over eastern parts of Indonesia and most parts of Thailand over the past 30 to 40 days,” Maxar’s Hyde said.
“In these areas, rainfall has reached 50% to 70% of average. Rainfall for most of September will be much lower than normal in Thailand and Indonesia.”
In the United States, corn and soybean crops have suffered in recent weeks due to drought, although the weather is not related to El Niño, said Drew Lerner, president of the global weather company.
From November to February, U.S. farms will see a greater El Niño impact with above-average precipitation in southern states, benefiting winter wheat, Lerner said.
The weather in South America is expected to be friendly to soybean and corn crops that will be harvested in early 2024.
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral) (Additional reporting by Tom Polancik in Chicago, Dewi Kurniawati in Jakarta, and Rajendra Jadhav in Mumbai – Prepared by Mohammed for the Arabic Bulletin) Editing by Miral Fahmy
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Principles of Trust.