- 39.1 and earlier
- Service PMI 49.8 vs Expected 47.2
- 47.3 and earlier
- Composite PMI 46.2 vs. Forecast 44.8
- 44.6 and earlier
The strength here, particularly in the services sector, is providing some comfort for the euro. But don’t get me wrong. If taken at face value, these numbers are still quite inadequate and the overall economy is still in contractionary territory. Again, this is due to weak demand conditions, which are unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter. HCOB points out:
“German services sector PMI stopped sluggish in September and rose to near 50, which is certainly a pleasant surprise.However, from a growth perspective, activity has mostly declined following the decline recorded in August. So, here’s where we stand.” The services sector, taking into account PMI data, continues to show signs of being a drag in the third quarter.
“It is no secret that the German manufacturing industry has been in a difficult situation recently. However, the HCOB PMI shows that the situation is not deteriorating as quickly as before, with the decline in new orders slowing. The contraction in purchasing activity is also losing momentum. Still, current forecasts for manufacturing production, including PMI numbers, suggest a decline of more than 2% compared to the second quarter.
“According to PMI figures, the goods sector is still mired in the deflationary trend of recent months. If we look at manufacturing input prices, they continue to fall, although not as fast as before. This is likely due to the rise in energy prices over the past few weeks. In contrast, factory production prices were reduced at a slightly faster pace than in the previous month.
“The HCOB Composite PMI confirms our view that Germany entered contraction again during the current quarter after a recession at the end of 2022 and early 2023. Our current outlook is positive compared to the same quarter. Before that, GDP has shown a fairly severe decline of 1%. That said, some key sub-indicators, such as new business and backlog, appear to have hit rock bottom, but as we enter the new year, we are hopeful that this recession will come to an end. He will give it to you. ”