Filmmakers have Cannes. Billionaires have Davos. economist? They have Jackson Hole.
The world’s most exclusive economic rally will be held this week at a lodge in the foothills of the scenic Teton Mountains, 54 miles from Jackson, Wyoming.
This Western-chic hotel, donated to the surrounding national park by members of the Rockefeller family, attracts about 120 economists each late August to host a series of carefully selected events centered around policy-related themes. discuss the papers of Government officials around the world can often be seen gazing out floor-to-ceiling windows in lobbies, hoping to see elk, or sipping huckleberry cocktails and debating the merits of particular inflation models.
The issue, albeit a geeky one, has become a key focus of Wall Street investors, academics, and the press. The conference organizers, the Kansas City Fed, seem to know a thing or two about the laws of supply and demand. Far fewer people are invited to the conference than there are willing to attend, but that only serves to increase its prestige. But more importantly, Jackson Hole tends to make big news.
The most anticipated event is the Fed Chairman’s speech, which usually takes place on Friday mornings and is often used by central banks to signal policy. Current Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell made headlines for each of his policies. every one of his jackson holes speech, Investors are anxiously waiting for this year. This is the only part of the closed meeting that is open to the public.
Mr. Powell speaks at a time of uncertainty about the Fed’s next move, as inflation has slowed but the economy remains surprisingly strong. Wall Street is trying to see if Fed officials think they need to raise rates further this year, and if so, whether that move is likely in September. So far, policymakers have given little clear signal about their plans. The government raised interest rates from near zero to 5.25-5.5% in March 2022, leaving the option of taking further action.
Seth Carpenter, a former Fed economist now at Morgan Stanley, said people would pay close attention to Mr. Powell’s speech, but “I think it’s a matter of tone.” “I don’t think what he doesn’t want to do is suggest or commit to a short-term policy move.”
The Jackson Hole Conference, of modern renown, Thursday night through Saturday, is not always a hot topic in Washington and New York. Here is how it became what it is today.
The setting is the old Wild West.
Jackson used to play a host of very different characters. The town was once so remote that it was a go-to refuge for outlaws.
In 1920, Jackson’s population was about 300, New York Times I thought back “Every time a serious crime occurred between the Mississippi River and the Pacific Coast, it was quite safe to assume that the perpetrator was on his way to Jackson’s Hole, or had already arrived.”
Jackson’s remoteness also meant that the region’s towering craggy mountains and rugged valleys remained pristine and became a prime area for conservationists. Investor and philanthropist John D. Rockefeller Jr.; got it secretly And donated much of the land that would eventually become the Jackson Hole section of Grand Teton National Park. And around 1950, he began construction on Jackson Lake Lodge.
The lodge’s modern architecture I didn’t love you at first by locals. (“‘A slab-sided concrete abomination’ is one of the milder adjectives thrown at this colossal structure,” quipped The Times in 1955.) Among other complaints: Rockefeller’s donation to the park lacked resort benefits. There were no golf courses or spas. .
By 1982, however, its ample space and expansive scenery had caught the attention of the Kansas City Fed, which was looking for a new location for the conference it began in 1978.
Meetings have been held there since 1982.
Jackson Lake Lodge was high on that list of attractions. Close to excellent fly fishing It was a surefire way to appeal to then-Fed Chairman Paul A. Volcker. Once he arrived, Jackson Hole quickly became the Fed’s event of the year, among the A-list attendees and the natural beauty of the location.
The Times reported in 1985 that “about half of the 137 people invited this year attended, and the response was astonishing.”
According to the Kansas City Fed, the size of the conference hasn’t changed much. Attendance averages about 115 to 120 people a year, according to the Kansas City Fed. The response rate has increased significantly since 1985, but the Fed’s branch did not disclose specific amounts.
However, local conditions have changed.
Jackson’s hometown of Teton County (now a bustling town) 11,000) and Jackson Hole are home to more millionaires than criminal cowboys these days. it is, most unequal places in america Great spread of wealth, even by some measures, income divide. The event, which was advertised as rustic, now struggles to pretend its backdrop isn’t upscale.
And the Fed’s rallies themselves are becoming increasingly popular. Alan Greenspan delivered the opening address at a conference in Jackson Hole in 1991 when he was Fed chairman and continued that tradition for 14 summers until his resignation.
Most of his successors followed suit. Mr. Powell has used his speech as follows: Beware of overdependence Announcing an all-new monetary policy framework for hard-to-determine economic variables and pledging the Fed to do what it needs to do to curb rapid inflation.
But things are changing.
Attention to Jackson Hole was also heightened by the 2008 global financial crisis, when the central bank’s growing influence rescued markets and propped up the economy. In the years that followed, uninvited journalists, Wall Street analysts, and protest groups camped out in the lobby of the lodge during the proceedings. By speaking and presiding over sessions at Jackson Hole, the economist further elevated himself to academic rock star status.
Esther George, who served as Kansas City Fed President from 2011 to early 2023, took charge as the event drew more attention. She and her team responded to the growing spotlight by shaking who should be in the spotlight.
There are far fewer economists in banking and finance. Invited to events since 2014, partly in response to public attention to the Fed’s Wall Street ties after the financial crisis. Many of the people on the list are current and former economic officials and up-and-coming academics. There are more and more women, people of diverse racial backgrounds, people with different economic perspectives.
George started hosting informal happy hours for female economists in 2012, but recalled that there were very few women at the time and “we could all sit around a small table”. Hearing that, she thought: “Why aren’t there other voices here?”
last year, happy hour included dozens of women.
But the Jackson Hole conference could enter a new era. George was required to retire in 2023 under Fed regulations, so while helping organize this conference, he will pass the baton of future events to the next one. Her successor, Jeffrey Schmidt, University administrator and former CEO of Omaha Bank Mutual. He will become Kansas City Fed president on Monday and will make his debut as a Fed official at a meeting this week.