Preparing for the threat of an asteroid impact may seem like a hypothetical exercise, but it really isn’t.
The solar system is much calmer than it was in earlier periods when collisions were more frequent. However, it is only a matter of time before the asteroid heads straight for Earth. The possibility of being affected is not zero.
As difficult as determining when it will come for us is the challenge of cooperating with humanity to prepare for it.
This is an indisputable fact that cannot be ignored in thought or prayer. Even a modest asteroid with a diameter of 500 meters could deliver a powerful blow to Earth, releasing more than 10 gigatons of energy.
If it were to hit land, the impact would dig a crater 9 km in diameter and 0.7 km deep. It is possible to go as far as 4 km.3 of ejecta. The ejecta flashes hot and is propelled into the atmosphere, only to rain and cause firestorms. When an asteroid hits the ocean, a massive tsunami poses a powerful threat.
Either way, the course of human civilization will be forever changed. This is a polite way of saying we’re screwed. It all has to do with the size of the impactor, and there are many asteroids over 500 meters. (To be fair, there are many smaller ones as well.)
Anyone who survives a sufficiently large asteroid impact will likely be forced into a struggle for survival comparable to the struggle faced by our ancient ancestors.
None of this is new to those who study asteroids, catalog those that pose a threat, and try to develop ways to not only predict but also eliminate threats. Some of the same people who are both scientists and politicians are Planetary Defense Conference 2023 To investigate all issues surrounding asteroid impacts.
Now, a group of researchers has dissected the meeting and examined our response in more detail.
Their results were published in a paper in the journal Acta Astronautica. the title is””Diplomatic, geopolitical, and economic implications of the impending asteroid threat.The lead author is Laura Jamshon Mac Garry, a diplomat and professor at the University of Belgrano and the University of Del Salvador in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
In their analysis, the authors consider matters beyond scientific and technical correspondence. They also consider the legal international framework, national practices in multilateral forums, and the opinions of academics.
First of all, there is no panic in their approach at all. “Although the probability of an asteroid hitting Earth is very low, if an impact were to occur, the consequences could be catastrophic,” the report said.
we all know it. But unlike other natural disasters, we can see an asteroid coming and can prepare for it. This puts potential impacts in a separate category from things like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.
The premise of the conference is very simple: an asteroid 500 meters in diameter is headed toward Earth. This is a newly discovered near-Earth asteroid in January. The asteroid’s orbit made it difficult to detect. The PDC considered it a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) and named it 2023 PDC.
As follow-up observations continued, participants learned that the probability that PDC would collide with Earth in 2023 was increasing. Ultimately, they determined that the asteroid would hit Earth in October 2036, giving humanity 12.5 years.
That much lead time is important. This would give humanity time to study the asteroid, determine its composition, and even send spacecraft to study it. That’s all good, isn’t it? However, there is a dark side to that lead time.
“On the other hand, it had the disadvantage of longer lead times,” the authors write.
Once it knows where it will strike, chaos will reign in that area. Where is everyone going? Who will accept them? Banks will fail and the economic system will collapse. Industries will collapse, and so will agriculture and food production.
People will try to flee and law and order may break down. In short, it will be a time of unpredictability and turmoil. There may be wars, cults, fascist dictators, and who knows how else the primitive animal side of humanity will manifest itself. Perhaps a portion of the population will be denounced as scapegoats and herded into camps.
All of these things have happened many times in human history, even without the apocalyptic threat of an asteroid impact. This is not science fiction.
But every time chaos and disorder creep into humanity, there are those who try to prevent the worst from happening. That’s certainly true when it comes to asteroid impacts.
2011 was a critical year in asteroid impact preparedness. The United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) has established an Action Team on Near-Earth Objects. Governments around the world have become involved in developing an international response to an impending asteroid impact.
Over the years, more committees were formed and plans were developed to detect asteroids and, if necessary, deflect them.
However, all these were primarily scientific and technical responses. Universe Today readers are probably familiar with the threat of asteroid impacts, efforts to find all potentially dangerous asteroids, and missions such as: NASA’s DART.
But this new analysis goes beyond detecting and preventing, digging into the social aspects of impending attacks. Here are some of the questions that the research points out that need to be answered up front.
- If evacuation is necessary, how will it be planned? Will the most vulnerable be given priority? Most productive?
- How will social institutions respond? Will universities, social media, religion, and others respond with destructive thinking or awareness-raising?
- Is there a responsibility to accommodate other nationals in the event of a disaster (internally displaced persons and cross-border refugees)?
- Who will pay? When and how?
- If it is necessary to use an atomic warhead to destroy the impactor, how will it be organized? Will there be distrust?
This is not a complete list, but it does illustrate the kind of confusing and complicated situation we would find ourselves in if an asteroid were to come close to Earth.
Others include:
- What role can developing countries play compared to that played by space-faring nations?
- Will geopolitical rivals seek to gain an advantage?
- If there is a 12.5-year lead time, how will a democracy based on a four-year governing period prepare?
The authors believe that the main issue concerns the use of nuclear explosive devices (NEDs).
“All five permanent members of the Security Council can veto the use of NEDs in space, but as nuclear powers, they are subject to geopolitical, economic, and even cultural and religious debates. ,” they said. write.
This is not a pleasant topic, but for some it causes a feeling of obligation. Ultimately, humanity will either rise together or fall together on this planet. In some ways, an asteroid impact is the ultimate test for our species. Climate change is a slow-moving threat that is entirely of our own making.
But asteroids are different. Asteroid impacts are completely natural, and so are extinctions.
If you want to survive the former and avoid the latter, you need to be as prepared as possible. Preparations have already begun, but this article points out ways to continue preparing in a practical way.
This article was first published today’s universe.read Original work.