Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, September 26, 2023.
Brendan McDiarmid | Reuters
A majority of Wall Street investors didn’t enjoy 2023’s stock gains, believing the market may decline further as recession risks grow, according to a new investor survey by CNBC Deliver Alpha.
We surveyed nearly 300 senior investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and contributors at CNBC who manage money about where they stand in the markets for the rest of 2023 and beyond. The poll was conducted this week.
More than 60% of respondents believe the stock market’s gains this year were just a bear market rebound, meaning more trouble to come. 39% of investors believe we are already in a new bull market.
The S&P 500 fell more than 5% this month alone, trimming its gains for 2023 to 11%. Stocks struggled as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields higher. The market also faced a rise in crude oil prices as well as a 10-week winning streak in the dollar.
In response to a question about the possibility of a recession, 41% of survey participants said they expect a recession to occur in mid-2024, and 23% said the recession will arrive later than 12 months from now. Only 14% said they did not expect a recession.
“I think the market is telling us that we should expect another rally or two, and that the consensus is building for a while longer,” Michael Arugetti, CEO of Ares Management, said in an interview with CNBC’s Leslie Baker.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this month but expected to raise them again this year. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the odds of a rate hike are higher now in light of the recent jump in oil prices, which could put upward pressure on inflation. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also warned that interest rates could rise a little more.