Three bursts of energy from the Sun could be headed toward Earth. Space weather forecasters believe that this magnetic storm creates the aurora borealis.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) detected the first coronal mass ejection (CME) on Monday. CME is the energy released from the Sun during sunspot eruptions. The first CME is heading toward Earth, but is expected to miss Earth’s atmosphere.
And on the same day, November 27, two more CMEs explode from the Sun’s surface and head toward Earth.
Finally, on November 28th, a very powerful CME exploded off the surface of the Sun and headed straight for Earth. NOAA space weather forecasters now say the last powerful CME will catch up and merge with the second and his third.
Not just one CME hits the atmosphere. Three of his CMEs will be combined into one large geomagnetic storm.
Forecasters expect the solar storm’s energy to arrive around and after midnight on December 1st. At this time, the aurora borealis became visible in Michigan and much of the northern third of the United States.
The strength of the sun’s energy hitting Earth’s atmosphere determines how far south the aurora can be seen. The strength of a burst of solar energy is measured by the Kp index. The forecast below shows that the peak Kp index is expected to reach 7 between 1am and 4am on Friday. Forecasters also put a 55 percent chance of a “strong to extreme” geomagnetic storm during that period.
With a Kp of 7, the aurora can be seen almost directly over the northern half of southern Michigan, from Bay City north to Muskegon. You may also be able to see the Northern Lights in the southern half of Michigan, but be aware that you will need to be in a very dark location.
In fact, the Kp index of 7 was so strong that people in Indiana and Ohio were able to see the Northern Lights.
Unfortunately, this is a prediction made using only one data point at this time: the time, direction, and estimated speed at which the CME will leave the Sun’s surface. We only get another good update about an hour after the energy hits Earth’s atmosphere. In other words, new forecasts using new data won’t be available until late Thursday night.
Here in Michigan, we should also expect clear skies Thursday evening into early Friday morning. The approaching storm probably won’t send any clouds toward us between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. Friday, so that certainly seems possible. Tomorrow, I’ll explain more about cloud weather forecasts here.
Also: Michigan’s future temperature map has red areas, which will help warm up