High-energy particles hit Earth just eight minutes after Thursday’s flare. These caused a shortwave radio blackout over Central and South America, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration described as a “remarkable event” and “probably one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded.” Ta.
Early this morning, the sun jumped out of the largest #solarflare It’s certainly been a while since we’ve seen this kind of saturation in the SDO/AIA data. Unfortunately, this equipment is not designed for such large flares. #spaceweather pic.twitter.com/B7iU7OE3Vf
— Dr. Ryan French (@RyanJFrench) December 14, 2023
Many National Weather Service aviation centers reported interference and reduced signal quality.
All eyes are now on Saturday and Sunday, when magnetic and solar material from a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a flare could impact Earth. Slower objects take several days to reach Earth. But once it arrives, it pulsates through the Earth’s magnetic field as it is converted into visible light, or aurora borealis, or auroras, which are known to cause geomagnetic storms.
Can you see the aurora?
Predicting aurora borealis is difficult. There are only two main ways to directly observe a potential coronal mass ejection before its arrival.
Immediately after something happens, we observe it from solar and heliospheric observatory satellites that stare into the sun’s corona, or atmosphere. Scientists will then have to wait about two days for the CME to arrive at the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite, about 1 million miles from Earth. This would provide just an hour’s warning before the CME actually hits Earth.
It’s like a tsunami on the other side of the ocean.you know that It happened, but you don’t know if it’s actually aiming at you until much later, when the edge of the dock suddenly starts moving. It’s a little late to get ready by then.
In this case, we know that the CME was launched into space by a flare. We’re in that weird time frame until DSCOVR can provide her last second confirmation. At this point, the CME’s shoulder could at least cause the Earth to skid, causing a geomagnetic storm.that expectation is based on modelingshowing a “shock wave” propagating through space.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is calling for at least G1 intermittent geomagnetic storms over the next three days. The aurora should then slide over southern Canada. The possibility of a more significant G2 or G3 geomagnetic storm cannot be ruled out, potentially spilling the aurora into the northern United States.
This is what the coronal mass ejection triggered during yesterday’s X2.8 solar flare, the most powerful solar flare since 2017, looked like. As expected, the CME is mainly oriented to the west, but there are signs of a clear partial halo above 270 degrees. pic.twitter.com/qfTgIa03Ii
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) December 15, 2023
The geomagnetic storm is not expected to be as intense as on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, when auroras were observed far south in Arizona and Virginia, but sometimes unexpected events can occur.
Importance of flare
The intensity of the original solar flare is impressive. An average of 100 to 150 X-class flares occur every 11-year solar cycle. We are nearing the peak of the solar cycle, which should come sometime in 2024.
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections begin with sunspots. The more sunspots there are, the more likely a flare or CME will occur. Therefore, solar activity is expected to continue increasing until the peak of the solar cycle. Sky watchers should always remain vigilant. The chances of seeing the Northern Lights will be the highest for the next few months.