BOSTON — The labor shortage that has left employers in all sectors scrambling to stay afloat in recent years is unlikely to subside “at any time, for the rest of anyone’s lifetime,” one of the nation’s leading economists said Thursday. stated.
“The labor shortage will continue for the time being.” Curtis Dubay, Chief Economist, U.S. Chamber of CommerceSaid at one point. Greater Boston Business Chamber Event at WBUR City Space.
He said some employers are waiting for more workers to be filled, but there is a large gap between the number of jobs companies want to fill and the workers available to fill them. The time has come to start moving to a new strategy that embraces the
The labor shortage is primarily due to the mass retirement of baby boomers, Dubay said. “The generations after the baby boomers weren’t big enough.”
Currently, there are approximately 3.5 million more job openings than available workers in the country.
There are no quick solutions to Massachusetts’ labor shortage.
Recognizing that there are no quick fixes to the labor supply problem will be important for Boston businesses to navigate the labor market. Jim Rooney, CEO said a member of the Greater Boston Business Chamber.
“The identification of the labor issue and the labor shortage issue was not unexpected. I think what was eye-opening was Curtis’ statement that it was a long-term issue,” Rooney said. . “Our view is that it will take some time to get out of this period, but given the trends that are driving it and the strength of it, it will be for a much longer period of time.”
According to the U.S. Census, approximately 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 and become eligible for retirement every day. By 2030, all members of this large generation will have reached retirement age.
Dubay said the U.S. needs to rely more on immigrants because fewer people are available to fill roles that older generations are retiring and rising birth rates are “not something that public policy can solve.”
Immigration reform is needed to resolve labor shortages
Mr. Rooney called Boston “a city driven by immigrants,” and agreed with Mr. DuBay’s call for federal immigration reform.
“Our immigration policies are far behind, especially in this region, and we’re not accepting what has been the backbone of Boston’s economy for 400 years,” Rooney said. “About a third of our hospital employees are foreign-born. I’m not talking about the cafeteria workers or the janitors. I’m talking about the people in the operating room performing procedures. A medical professional who performs medical procedures and treats patients.
While employers lament the difficulty of operating without enough staff, Dubey said Tuesday that workers are reaping the benefits.
Economy continues to grow despite fears of recession
The economy has continued to grow over the past few years, despite economists’ frequent predictions that a recession is on the horizon.
“Consumers keep spending. That’s what drives growth. Consumers keep spending. There’s no way consumers can keep spending at that rate. But the point is, they want jobs, they want jobs. Or if you want to work, you can continue to consume.” If you want to spend money and need a job, you can have a job,” Dubay said.
Wages are rising as employers seek to retain workers, which also prompts more spending.
With more opportunities and security for workers, Dubay said, despite predictions that the economy will slow in 2024, “I don’t think it matters that much” if there is a recession. Told.
According to him, the United States experienced a recession in the first half of 2022, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economist claimed that “no one remembers” this drop.
“The reason nobody remembers that is because during that period, employment grew, spending went up, incomes went up, manufacturing output went up,” Dubay said. “The important question is, did it really matter? If all these things that affect people’s daily lives continue to increase, if no one is feeling the pain, then there was a recession. Does it really matter whether it’s a recession or not?’ Or not? “
Dubay called this a “tree falling in the forest” and said that even if the economy slowed in 2024, there would not be mass layoffs because workers are too valuable to employers in the current situation. Stated.
Yasmin King of semiconductor maker Analog Devices, one of the panelists at Thursday’s event, said the company’s biggest challenge is the labor shortage.
Massachusetts housing and living costs key to retaining and attracting workforce
The semiconductor industry is growing exponentially in the United States
“We estimate that the industry will need 115,000 additional jobs in the U.S. by 2030, but current graduation rates for advanced degrees and technical training programs will not fill half of those jobs. You won’t be able to. So this is a serious issue and it’s just a semiconductor,” King said.
Higher education institutions are experiencing enrollment declines and continue to prepare for enrollment declines.
“This is going to be a special challenge for all higher education, but it’s going to be a particular challenge here because Boston is so concentrated,” Dubay said.
Rooney said Thursday that as the workforce shrinks and may not grow again anytime soon, Boston and Massachusetts need to attract top talent to move to the region and retain those already living here. “We need to change our strategy,” he said.
“This is a national issue that will take some time, which means we’re competing for talent with the rest of the country and they’re competing with us,” Rooney said. Told. “This is a national competition for talent…We need to understand what steps we have to take to make it attractive for young people to want to stay here. What are the answers? , I think we know where to turn, and that’s home prices and what it costs.”
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