Oct. 2 (Reuters) – Financial markets columnist Jamie McGeever discusses the future outlook for Asian markets.
An early burst of positive sentiment or relief after the U.S. Congress agreed to a last-minute deal to avert a partial federal government shutdown could lift Asian markets on Monday. There is.
However, China Purchasing Managers Index data over the weekend showed mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month, potentially putting a damper on this. Other PMI data across the region is also expected to be released this week.
Investors will be hoping to start the fourth quarter on a strong note after a pretty dismal third quarter. Stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell to varying degrees as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates wouldn’t fall as quickly as expected.
Chinese markets will be closed for most of the week for Golden Week, but investors will no doubt welcome the holiday. The real estate sector has collapsed, money has flown out of Chinese assets, the currency is under great pressure and the economy is struggling.
However, the International Monetary Fund was a bit more optimistic, saying last week that recent policy support from the Chinese government was having a positive effect and stabilizing the economy.
The next step is for growth to accelerate again, which was well below full-year forecasts. Economic surprises remain negative, but have recovered from their summer lows, levels that historically coincided with periods of extreme economic and financial stress in 2008, 2015, and 2020.
Monday’s series of PMI reports will include the latest snapshots from Australia, Japan and Indonesia, as well as the closely-watched Tankan survey on business confidence and confidence in Japan.
The first trading week of the fourth quarter begins with market-moving events in the Asia-Pacific region, including central bank policy decisions in Australia, India and New Zealand, as well as a trove of inflation data from across the region.
Inflation data includes the latest measurements of consumer prices in September for Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of India are all expected to keep their key interest rates unchanged at 4.10%, 5.5% and 6.5% respectively. Attention is now focused on guidelines for policy makers.
Investors believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could make its last interest rate hike of the year. However, with many other central banks likely exiting their rate hike cycles, the question now is how long the ‘long rate hike’ hiatus will last and when will the easing cycle begin? is.
Here are the key trends that could give further direction to the market on Monday:
– Manufacturing PMI for Australia, Japan and Indonesia (September)
– Japan Tankan Survey (3rd quarter)
– Summary of opinions at the Bank of Japan policy meeting held on September 21-22
Written by Jamie McGeever.Editing: Richard Chan
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