There is little reason for retailers to rejoice in the latest ONS data showing how the rise in global oil prices since June has affected fuel purchases.
Retail sales rebounded last month as summer weather returned, despite being hit by weak fuel demand, official figures showed.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a rise of 0.4%, but excluding the impact of fuel sales this figure rose to 0.6%.
The increase was said to be driven by strong clothing sales. fuel Sales volume decreased by 1.2%. This is likely a result of higher pump costs due to rising global oil prices.
Overall sales rebounded after being revised upwards by 1.1%. Decline in July This compares to last month, when people avoided shopping for summer fashion in brick-and-mortar stores due to rainy weather.
ONS senior statistician Heather Bovill said: “Although overall sales remain subdued, a partial recovery in groceries and a strong month in clothing have helped retail trade recover from the significant increase seen in July. “There has been some recovery from the slump.”
“These were partially offset by internet sales, which declined slightly as some people returned to shopping in person after a very wet July.Fuel sales also suffered a hit to demand due to higher prices. It decreased as a result.”
Latest data from the RAC shows the cost of unleaded crude and diesel oil has risen by more than 10p per liter since early August, reflecting Brent oil prices at their highest in 10 months. It was suggested.
Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been blamed for the price increase, and pump prices are likely to take longer to reflect current levels of Brent.
ONS data is eagerly awaited as household spending makes up a large part of the UK economy and is currently flat.
Indicators of activity for non-retail manufacturing and services indicate an increased risk of a future recession.
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures of activity in September (subject to revision when complete data is available) shows quarterly production contracted by 0.4%. He said that it shows that.
The data was released to the Bank of England ahead of the latest interest rate announcement on Thursday.
The decision to keep the bank rate at 5.25% was driven by a decline in the key inflation indicator, but the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee also said it was concerned about recession risks cited by companies participating in the PMI survey. He’ll be holding you.
Bailey: “Don’t be complacent”
Still, after 14 consecutive interest rate hikes to combat surging inflation, the rate-setting committee will be watching to see whether a pause in rate hikes signals a recovery in consumer spending and other demand.
GfK’s consumer confidence measure, a closely watched indicator of activity, rose on Friday.
The survey was conducted prior to the central bank’s interest rate decisions.
Wage growth is currently outpacing inflation, so any future splurges would be a concern for rate setters.
Although the central bank’s suspension of interest rate hikes provides some reassurance to borrowers that mortgage costs and other costs will not rise any further for the time being, the central bank’s governor has warned that he will need to take action again if the pace of inflation accelerates. suggested.
Andrew Bailey has also made it clear that there is no immediate prospect of a rate cut.