We recently compiled a list of The world’s 30 largest economies by 2075 In this article we will take a look at the country that is expected to become the largest in 2075.
Emerging markets are expected to lead the economy by 2075
According to research by Goldman Sachs, potential global growth is expected to slow, largely due to slower labor force growth. Projections indicate that global growth will average just under 3% per year and continue on a downward trajectory. Global population growth has halved from 2% per year to less than 1% over the past five decades, and is expected to decline to near zero by 2075. Although real GDP growth has slowed for both advanced and emerging economies Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are expected to continue to outperform developed markets. By 2050, the world’s five largest economies are expected to be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany. You can also take a look at The 20 largest economies in the world by 2050.
The United States is unlikely to outperform because potential growth is significantly lower than that of large emerging economies. Potential growth in the United States is expected to remain well below that of large emerging economies such as China and India. The appreciation of the dollar has lifted the value of the US economy, pushing it well above its fair value based on purchasing power parity, but the strength of the dollar is expected to wane over the next decade, suggesting a potential depreciation. Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could be among the world’s largest economies by 2075 if appropriate policies are implemented. Globalization has greatly reduced income inequality between countries, and emerging markets have led to a more equal distribution of global income. Global income inequality has declined over the past two decades, but income inequality within countries has risen, posing a challenge to the future of globalization.
The Goldman Sachs research also discussed potential challenges to global economic growth and income convergence. The first is the risk that populist nationalism will lead to increased protectionism and a reversal of globalization. Populist nationalists have come to power in many countries and influenced globalization. However, the risk of reversal is still clear. Secondly, the risk of an environmental catastrophe due to climate change. Many countries have succeeded in decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions, showing that this is something that can be achieved on a global scale. However, achieving sustainable growth will require economic sacrifices and a globally coordinated response, both of which pose major political challenges.
For the years 2070-79, emerging economies are expected to grow by 2.3% and will continue to outpace advanced economies due to productivity growth of only 1.1%. Asia will remain the fastest-growing region at 2.0%, however, the Chinese economy is expected to experience one of the sharpest slowdowns. Growth in Latin American economies is expected to be 1.9% and is expected to grow gradually and accelerate over the next decade before slowing again in recent decades. Growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa is expected to remain relatively stable at 3.2%, due to the increasing contribution of African economies.
One of the largest companies in Asia
Corporations play an important role as key economic drivers for economies around the world. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD), also known as Pinduoduo Inc., is a prominent Chinese company driving economic growth. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) is a multinational conglomerate that owns and operates a group of companies including Pinduoduo, an innovative e-commerce platform that connects consumers directly with small farmers and provides a network of sourcing, logistics and fulfillment services. The company also focuses on farmer training and modernizing agricultural practices. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) also operates Temu, an online marketplace that connects consumers with millions of merchandise partners, manufacturers and brands. Temu operates in several countries including the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea and South Africa.
On May 22, PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) announced that its revenue for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024, increased 131% to $12.02 billion compared to the previous year, and the company’s operating profit increased 275% to $3.94 billion, mainly due to increased fulfillment and payment processing fees. PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) expects Pinduoduo’s revenue to grow strongly by 71% in 2024, and another 29% in 2025. The company is focused on long-term growth and has invested $403.0 million in research and development to modernize its agriculture and supply chain, thus reducing its costs. The company has $33.31 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
While global growth is expected to slow, emerging markets, especially in Asia, are shifting the balance of global economic power.
Expanded view of the cityscape, showing the impact of the company’s activities in China.
Our methodology
To prepare our list of the world’s 30 largest economies by 2075, we consulted Fathom Consulting’s “The Economy in 2100,” which provides data on countries’ estimated percentage share of global GDP in 2100 and purchasing power parity GDP for the ten largest economies. We used purchasing power parity data for the GDP of the largest countries and the percentage to determine the total value of global GDP in 2075. Our calculations resulted in global GDP expected to reach approximately $324.34 trillion by 2075. After determining global GDP In US dollars, we estimated purchasing power parity (PPP) GDPs for other countries to provide insight into their expected values. We also used population projections for the year 2075, by the United Nations. Our list ranks the world’s 30 largest economies by 2075 in ascending order of GDP projections in 2075.
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The largest economy in the world by 2075
1. China
GDP forecast (2075): $66.16 trillion
Estimated share in global GDP (2075): 20.39%
Population projection (2075): 1.02 billion
China’s economic transformation stands out as one of the most notable success stories among middle-income countries. By 2075, China will be the world’s largest economy, driven by manufacturing, exports, and investment in technology and infrastructure. China’s GDP is projected to reach $66.16 trillion, accounting for 20.39% of the global economy. China has already overtaken the United States as the largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. China’s population is expected to decline to 1.02 billion by 2075.
Want to know more about which other countries will grow to be the largest by 2075? Check out our report on The world’s 30 largest economies by 2075.
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