Perhaps the most famous of the annual meteor showers, the Leonid meteor shower will soon reach its peak. These superfast meteors are scheduled to reach their peak on Saturday morning (November 18th).
The Leonid meteor shower is known for producing some of the most amazing meteor showers in the history of astronomy. The most notable are meteor storms such as those of 1799, 1833, and 1966, when rates of tens of thousands of meteors per hour were observed. More recently, smaller Leonid meteor shower appearances of only a few thousand meteors per hour occurred in 1999, 2001, and 2002.
Unfortunately, the negative effect of the Leonid meteor shower at the end of the century was that many people were under the impression that they could expect similar celestial fireworks from the Leonids every year. So the first thing to stress here is that suggestions for a spectacular appearance of the Leonid meteor shower this year are overly optimistic, to say the least.
So for those hoping for a memorable meteor shower show early Saturday morning, sorry to interrupt you, the 2023 version of the Leonid meteor shower will likely disappoint. There may be long stretches where no one can see you.
Related: 2023 Meteor Shower: When’s Next?
How to see this year’s Leonids meteor shower
The International Meteor Organization (IMO) is predicting 10 to 15 meteors per hour, peaking around 5pm UT on November 18th. The moon is a waxing crescent and will set and take attitude just before 8:30 Friday night. Nothing interferes. However, no matter what forecast you rely on, keep in mind that even in the best of conditions, the Leonid meteor shower is expected to cross your line of sight at an average rate of once every 3 to 6 minutes. please. And that’s assuming you have a clear view of the sky and are blessed with a dark environment free of light pollution.
Observing meteor showers is relatively easy. It means lying on your back, looking up at the sky, and waiting. Note that local light pollution and obstructions such as tall trees and buildings will further reduce your chances of seeing a meteor.
The constellation Leonid doesn’t become fully visible until after midnight, so this is the best time to focus on looking for the Leonid meteor shower. As night falls around 5 a.m. local time, Sickle will have risen more than two-thirds of the way from the southeastern horizon to the point directly overhead (called the zenith).
Also, because the Leonid meteor shower moves in an orbit around the sun in the opposite direction to Earth, it hits the atmosphere almost head-on, resulting in the meteors traveling at the fastest possible speed, at 45 per second. miles (72 km). Such velocities tend to produce bright meteors that leave long-lasting streaks or vapor trains in their wake.
The fireballs of the powerful Leonid meteor shower are quite spectacular, but such exceptionally bright meteors (if they are found at all) are likely to be very few and far away during this year.
comet fragment
The Leonid meteor shower is nicknamed because the shower’s radiant point, which looks like a fan of meteors, is located in the constellation Leonid, within an inverted question mark pattern of stars known as the “Sickle.” It’s for a reason.
The meteors are caused by the periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle, which passes through the inner solar system every 33.3 years. Every time a comet approaches the Sun, it leaves a “river of debris” in its wake. A road full of dusty debris. Meteor storms can only occur if the Earth hits a fresh trail of dust ejected by comets over the past few centuries.
You can see that “the bulk” (no pun intended) of the comet’s dust is directly in front of and trailing behind Tempel-Tuttle. The comet last passed through the inner solar system in 1998. That’s why spectacular meteor showers were observed in 1999, 2001 and 2002, but their numbers have decreased since then.
In 2016, Tempel-Tuttle reached aphelion, the point in its orbit as far away from the Sun as possible, or 1.84 billion miles (2.96 billion km). The comet is currently on its way back toward the sun and the interior of the solar system, and is scheduled to make its closest approach to the sun again in May 2031.
Just one year in 2023
However, the area near the comet is also where the heaviest concentration of meteoroids is found. In contrast, at the point in the comet’s orbit that we will pass on Saturday morning, particles are just scattered. A piece of a comet that collapsed from the comet’s frozen core probably a thousand or two thousand years ago.
Therefore, the 2023 Leonid meteor shower is expected to show lean activity this year. Mikhail Maslov, a highly regarded Russian expert on meteor shower forecasting, said: Predictions show a “moderate” maximumhe suggests that it will remain at approximately the same level (about 15 per hour) for the period from 0:00 to 12:00 UT on November 18th.
Canadian meteor forecasters Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown are a bit more optimistic, writing in the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada’s 2023 Observer’s Handbook that up to 20 meteors per hour could occur, with a maximum of It suggests that it will occur on November 18th at 06:00 UTC. In eastern and central North America, this will be around midnight.
Looking ahead
The good news is that the Leonid meteor shower is expected to slowly improve as Comet Tempel-Tuttle moves closer to the Sun. According to Mikhail Mazurov, there could be even more bright meteors, especially in 2025. But that will be in 2033. It won’t be until 2033 that Maslov and another famous forecaster, Frenchman Jérémie Vaubayon, predict that the number of meteors per hour could be in the hundreds or more. . But the best years in the next Leo cycle will be he 2034 and he 2035.
In 2034, the Leonid meteor shower should occur at a rate of 400 to 1,600 meteors per hour, due to debris ejected by Tempel-Tuttle in 1699, and a few hours later by the comet in 1767. There is another surge in activity due to the released material. 250 to 1000 Leonid meteor showers are possible. Finally, in 2035, 300 to 900 Leonids could be discovered from a dusty meteor trail dating back to 1633.
But if you can’t wait until then, we have some good news for you. More meteor showers are coming within a month. December’s Geminid meteor shower is currently considered the best meteor shower of the year, producing more than 100 meteors. per hour. The peak is expected on Wednesday night, December 13th. We’ll have more details on Space.com as we get closer to that date. Well then, stay tuned!
If you want to get up close and personal with stars and planets during new moons and other times, our guides to the best telescopes and best binoculars are a great place to start.
And if you want to take photos of the Leonid meteor shower, or the night sky in general, check out our guide on how to photograph meteors and meteor showers, as well as the best cameras and lenses for astrophotography.
Joe Rao is an instructor and guest lecturer at New York University. Hayden Planetarium.he writes about astronomy natural history magazine, farmers yearbook and other publications.