The holidays have come and gone, and Americans are once again experiencing a wave of respiratory illnesses, including the coronavirus. But so far, this winter’s coronavirus outbreak appears to be less deadly than last year and much smaller than in 2022, when an Omicron surge brought the country to a standstill.
“There’s no indication that we’re going to see another severe wave,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “So far, we’re in relatively good shape.”
Still, there were few visible masks and only a fraction of the most vulnerable people had received the latest Covid vaccinations, she noted.
“It’s never too late,” Dr. Rivers added. “We haven’t even reached the peak of the coronavirus epidemic yet. Once we reach the peak, we need to get back down on the other side.” That leaves enough time for the vaccine to provide some protection. will be done.
Federal officials are measuring the spread of infections this year based on limited data. After the public health emergency ended in May, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking the number of coronavirus cases. The agency currently only has partial access to information from states about vaccination rates.
However, the trend is waste water data, positive Examination, emergency department visit, hospitalization Fees and Deaths (number) According to the CDC, these patterns show that cases are increasing in all regions of the country. prompted many hospital to Recover mask policyalthough he initially resisted returning this fall.
As in previous years, that number has increased steadily throughout the winter and is expected to increase even more after holiday travel and gatherings.
Many of the infections are caused by a new variant, JN.1, which has spread rapidly around the world in recent weeks. “There’s no question that it’s contributing to a pretty big wave this winter,” said Caitlin Jetelina, a public health expert and author of a widely read newsletter. I think so,” he said.your local epidemiologist”
“Unfortunately, it’s coming at the exact same time that we’re opening up our social networks for the holidays,” she said, adding, “So it’s just a perfect storm happening right now. It is,” he said.
Some scientists point to rising concentrations of the virus in sewage samples as an indicator that the number of infections this year is at least as high as this time last year. But Rivers urged caution in interpreting wastewater data as a proxy for infectious disease, saying hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator.
The number of people hospitalized in the week ending December 23 increased by nearly 17% from the previous week. The number of new hospitalizations was about 29,000, compared to 39,000 in the same week last year and 61,000 in 2021.
And the increase in weekly hospitalizations is slower than in previous years, Dr. Rivers said.
The coronavirus continues to claim at least 1,200 lives each week. However, that number is about one-third of the number of victims this time last year, and about one-eighth of the number of victims in 2021.
“We’re in a pretty big infection surge right now, but what’s really interesting is how largely hospitalization has been, and continues to be, decoupled from infection,” Dr. Jetelina said. Told.
She said her biggest fear is that hospitals won’t be able to withstand the weight of multiple infections at once. Even years before a pandemic occurs, outbreaks of influenza and RSV alone can overwhelm hospitals. The rising infection rate of the new coronavirus is now overlapping both diseases, adding to the burden.
The CDC estimates that the flu has sickened at least 7.1 million people, led to 73,000 hospitalizations and killed 4,500 people so far this season.
While the new coronavirus tends to be milder in children and young adults, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus are most dangerous for children and older adults. All three diseases are especially dangerous for infants.
Infants and the elderly have the highest rate of emergency department visits due to coronavirus infection. Although RSV infections have leveled off in some parts of the country, hospitalization rates among young children and the elderly remain high.
The JN.1 variant describes: almost half Its share of all coronavirus cases in the U.S. is nearly six times higher than its prevalence just a month ago. This variant had one mutation that gave it a greater ability to evade immunity than its parent, BA.2.86, which limited its spread.
In fact, JN.1 may be less contagious than previous variants. However, its immune evasive nature and the disappearance of preventive measures such as masks may explain its rapid increase. World widesaid Dr. Abrar Karan, an infectious disease physician and postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University.
Still, JN.1 does not appear to cause more severe disease than previous variants, and the current vaccinetesting and treatment Well done For all current variants.
Experts recommend that all Americans, including those who are not at high risk for severe disease, receive vaccines against both the coronavirus and influenza, use masks and air purifiers to prevent infection, and provide testing and He urged people to seek treatment and stay home if they become ill.
The researchers noted that even people who do not become seriously ill are at risk of long-term complications with each new viral infection.
“To be honest, I’m not high risk. I’m young and I’m vaccinated,” Dr. Rivers said. “But I continue to take precautions in my life because I don’t want to deal with that kind of disruption or the risk of developing a long-term illness.”
But few Americans follow that advice. As of Dec. 23, only 19% of adults had received the latest COVID-19 vaccine, and about 44% chose to get their annual flu shot. Just over 17 percent of adults aged 60 and older had received an RSV vaccine.
Even among people over 75, who are most at risk from the coronavirus, 1 in 3 people received the latest shot, according to the CDC
Gigi Gromvall, a biosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said that vaccines are available to protect against the latest variants and that people should get vaccinated even if they are not at high risk. He points out that many people don’t know.
Even if COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent infection, they may shorten the duration and severity of illness, leading to long-term symptoms such as brain fog, fatigue, movement disorders, and dizziness (collectively referred to as long-term coronaviruses). ) risks can be minimized.
“I think there are a lot of people who are actively hostile to this idea, but most people I meet don’t even know that,” Dr. Gronvall said.
Difficulties in obtaining vaccines, especially for children and the elderly, also limit vaccination coverage.
Dr. Gronvall struggled to find a coronavirus vaccine for his teenage son. Dr. Jetelina has not yet found anything that can be given to young children. Her grandparents, who are in their mid-90s, also “went through an incredibly difficult time,” she said.
One of them is in a nursing home and has not yet been vaccinated because he happened to be sick on the day the vaccination was administered.
many nursing home resident Dr. Curran, who worked at a nursing home in Los Angeles County, said staff remain unvaccinated because they don’t understand the benefits.
Financial incentives can improve vaccination rates, but lack of awareness of their benefits is “a big problem,” he said.
Experts also urged people who develop symptoms to get tested and seek antiviral drugs (Tamiflu for influenza and Paxrovid for coronavirus), especially if they are at high risk of complications.
Paxlobid remains freely available to most people, but many patients and even doctors are avoiding it due to the mistaken belief that it can cause a flare-up of coronavirus symptoms, experts said.recent research I didn’t search relationship between antiviral drugs and symptom rebound.
“For many viruses, including influenza, early use of antiviral drugs has been shown to be beneficial,” Dr. Curran said. “If you stop viral replication quickly, there will be less subsequent immune dysregulation.”