Incumbent political leaders around the world have struggled in recent elections.
Voter opposition to high inflation is one of the main explanations.
In the 2024 election year, lower inflation It may not be enough to keep incumbent politicians in power.
power balance in governments around the world Things may change a lot next year — A lot of that is down to how much people hate inflation.
In 2024 historic Election year — more than half The world’s population lives in countries where elections are scheduled to be held.voters will choose the next leader 40 National elections in the US, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan, South Africa, UK, Belgium, Taiwan, etc.
Recent opinion polls and election results from the past few years show that many people current leader in trouble. Ruling parties have suffered defeats in New Zealand, South Korea and Australia.in France and DenmarkFor example, an incumbent leader may have won reelection but lost the majority of his party. Moreover, polls suggest that today’s leaders are far from popular in the United States, Britain, and Canada.
Most incumbents around the world have one thing in common that partially explains their unpopularity, but it’s not their reason. on the political spectrum.They have all presided over some event. era of high inflation.
In the United States, inflation is one of the main explanations for why Americans Others are dissatisfied with the healthy economy.and many condemn President Joe Biden Because of the high prices they experienced.
The United States isn’t the only place where people are obsessed with inflation. A McKinsey poll of individuals in five European countries conducted in the third quarter of last year found that inflation was the public’s top concern. 2/3 or more of consumers. The same factors are contributing to high prices in the United States. Supply chain disruption and geopolitical conflictwhich also influenced other parts of the world.
in many countries, inflation is currently falling That’s a significant increase from a year ago, and could give incumbent leaders hope.
In the United States, for example, high inflation did not prevent the Democratic Party from performing well. 2022 Midterm Elections. In the last few months, inflation has fallenand Americans’ opinions about the economy are, by several measures, It’s a little rosy.
But the damage has already been done, and slowing inflation may not be enough to convince many voters to support incumbent leaders like Biden.
Although there is a price, classified into several spending categories Over the past year, people spent more frequently on things like furniture and appliances, as well as food. more expensive.
Historically in the United States, it has taken a recession to defeat a president seeking re-election. Since 1948, the incumbent has been Won all 8 elections According to Goldman Sachs, this did not happen during or immediately after the recession. The US is not in recession, but Some experts predict that it will be held next year..
If the U.S. economy avoids a recession, and if Biden’s poll numbers don’t improve, next year’s election cycle could be historic in many ways.
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