EU leaders hope they can approve the EU’s biggest jobs package next week, once the European Parliament backs current EC President Ursula von der Leyen in mid-July and a new European Commission is in place around November 1.
If EU leaders can’t agree on a package next week, they’ll meet again in the summer to hold an extraordinary European Council meeting (and then another, and another, if necessary). The European Parliament’s next chance to elect the next leader of the EU executive isn’t until September (if no deal is reached in July), which would also delay the start of the next European Commission.
But this week they could not agree on who would hold the top jobs of European Commission president, Council president and Foreign Affairs commissioner. The game of negotiating between EU member states’ ambassadors and delegations is fraught with questions of influence, geographic balance and adequate political representation – a recipe for hard-won circumstances.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament, has emerged as a new force within Europe’s decision-making ranks, with the European Conservatives and Reformists party now the third largest political force in the European Parliament.
The leader of the far-right Brotherhood of Italy (FdL) party is hoping to be at the negotiating table over the names of EU leaders after expressing his dissatisfaction at being excluded from decisions on the next posts of the European Commission president, European Council and High Representative.
The three main parties – the European People’s Party, the Socialists and the Liberals – have each appointed two party leaders as political negotiators as they discuss who will fill the EU’s top executive post.
But Nicola Procaccini, a member of the European Parliament from Meloni’s party, has already declared that the Italian prime minister would seek greater influence in the European forum if Ursula von der Leyen is re-elected as European Commission president.
Meloni’s European Parliament is currently the third-largest of 720 seats, ahead of the liberal Renew, but is not part of the political coalition backing von der Leyen. “When we were in the European Council, some came with proposals for top executive posts without even reflecting on the opinions of voters and the changing priorities,” Meloni said this week. “I think those who are trying to make this agreement were in a hurry because they realize it could be a fragile agreement.”
Election of Chairperson
A key choice for EU leaders is whether to welcome Ursula von der Leyen back for a second term as European Commission president.
As the “Spitzenkandidat” – the leading candidate of the winning party, the European People’s Party – von der Leyen is the first person to be nominated for the presidency of the European Council, which runs the EU and proposes new laws to the European Parliament.
Von der Leyen’s selection is a matter for government leaders in the European Council to decide, not necessarily along party lines, but the EPP now believes that not only should she be the first choice for the EC presidency, but that the presidency of the Council for the next five years, a job last held by former Prime Minister Charles Michel of the New Party, should be split between the EPP and the Socialists.
This departure from the script of a coalition of political parties neatly slicing the EU cake has irritated those who are not supporters of the EPP. Last week Charles Michel himself suggested to EU leaders that the EC should be led not by von der Leyen but by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (EPP). Indeed, as the outgoing President of the Council, it is Michel who is tasked with bringing together European leaders to reach an agreement on the next leaders of the European Commission, the European Council, the European Parliament and the EU’s foreign policy arm.
Mitsotakis has already ruled out the possibility of seeking a job in Brussels. But Michel’s “alternative” is the culmination of a saga of infighting with von der Leyen, which began early in her term, with the former German defense minister declaring himself head of a “geopolitical commission” and the former Belgian prime minister wanting to be the face of Europe abroad. This has led to two, even three, EU leaders (including High Representative Josep Borrell) competing for global recognition.
Finally, it is EU prime ministers who will hold a final vote on von der Leyen’s renewal in Brussels at the end of June.
Other Work
Meloni is expected to force his way into the European game by running for Italy’s top economic commissioner, which includes the title of executive vice president or vice president, appointed by the ECR. One possible candidate would be Italy’s EU minister, Raffaele Fitto, who was part of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia until he stepped down in 2015.
Meloni may also be interested in recommending the current head of Italy’s intelligence agency, Elisabetta Belloni, for EU High Representative (effectively EU foreign minister), a post that is expected to go to Estonian Prime Minister Kaje Kallas, who has gained increased political influence since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
Even if von der Leyen doesn’t need Meloni’s unanimous vote to back her up, it remains to be seen whether European leaders can ignore a strengthened Meloni, who has also shown no hesitation in feuding with French President Emmanuel Macron since France froze plans to accept 3,500 refugees as part of the EU’s migrant relocation mechanism in 2022 and announced tougher borders instead.
The division of EU posts always involves balancing: between the main political blocs, between North-South and East-West, between men and women. In this case, the East will have Kallas as Deputy Prime Minister, the North will have von der Leyen, and the South will have Roberta Metsola of Malta as the European People’s Party’s (EPP) European Parliament candidate. Meanwhile, Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa is the favourite to take on the post of President of the European Council.
Voting for Members of the European Parliament
While the chief negotiators of the three main political groups are in talks to draw up a final list of EU commissioners and a jobs package by the time the Council meets next week, it is the European Parliament that will ultimately vote for the next European Commission president in mid-July. MEPs will undoubtedly bring with them guidelines from national governments, who will likely to follow a stable EU line that signals unity, especially in the face of geopolitical uncertainty with the US elections yet to begin later this year.
For von der Leyen, this is not a done deal: she needs 361 votes out of 720 in the European Parliament to be appointed president, and not all members of the EPP, Socialists or Liberals will vote for her, especially if the EPP moves to boost jobs. And if von der Leyen loses this vote, the Council will have to re-elect a candidate to replace her as president of the European Commission, an institutional crisis that Europe does not want.