Pioneering research warns of an impending mass extinction event due to unprecedented global heat that could put nearly all mammals at risk within about 250 million years.
One study predicts that the heatwave caused by the formation of a supercontinent will lead to mass extinction of mammals within 250 million years. This study highlights the deadly combination of a hotter sun and increased carbon dioxide levels.2and the influence of continents highlight the importance of landmass placement in assessing the habitability of exoplanets.
Unprecedented heat is likely to lead to the next mass extinction since dinosaurs went extinct and almost all mammals went extinct in about 250 million years, according to a new study.
The study was published in the journal September 25th. natural earth science The research, led by the University of Bristol, presents the first-ever supercomputer climate model of the distant future, when the world’s continents eventually coalesce to form hot, dry, and largely uninhabitable supercontinents. , demonstrating how climate extremes can dramatically intensify.
Factors causing extreme temperatures
The findings predict how these high temperatures will rise further as the sun gets brighter, emitting more energy and warming the planet. The tectonic movements that occur in the Earth’s crust and lead to the formation of supercontinents will increase the frequency of volcanic eruptions and release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, further warming the planet.
Mammals, including humans, have historically survived thanks to their ability to adapt to extreme weather, particularly through adaptations such as fur and hibernation in cold temperatures and short periods of hibernation in warmer climates.
Although mammals have evolved to lower their cold survival limits, their high temperature tolerance generally remains constant. For this reason, long-term exposure to excessive heat would be much more difficult to overcome, and even if climate simulations were to become a reality, they would ultimately prove unviable.
Effects on mammals
Lead author, Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, Senior Researcher University of Bristol“Emerging supercontinents would effectively create a triple whammy of continental effects, a hotter sun, and increased carbon dioxide.”2 In the atmosphere, heat increases over much of the Earth. The result was an almost inhospitable environment for mammals lacking food and water sources.
“Wide range temperatures are in the 40s to 50s.” Celsius, and the daily extremes, combined with high levels of humidity, will ultimately determine our fate.Humans – along with many other people seed – You can die because you are unable to release this heat through sweat and cool your body. ”
Human-induced climate change and global warming are likely to cause increased heat stress and mortality in some regions, but research suggests that until this seismic land change occurs in the distant future, , the Earth should remain largely habitable. However, research shows that once a supercontinent forms, only between 8% and 16% of the land area will be inhabitable by mammals.
Addressing the current climate crisis
Co-author Dr Eunice Law, a climate change and health researcher at the University of Bristol, said: We predict that the Earth will become uninhabitable in 250 million years, but currently we are already experiencing extreme heat that has negative effects on human health. This is why it is important to reach net zero emissions as soon as possible. ”
Methodology and future predictions
An international team of scientists applied climate models to simulate trends in temperature, wind, rain, and humidity in the next supercontinent (called Pangea Ultima) expected to form within the next 250 million years. .To estimate future CO levels2 The research team used models of plate tectonic movements, ocean chemistry, and biology to plan CO inputs and outputs.2.
future CO2 The calculations were led by Professor Benjamin Mills from the University of Leeds, who said:2 Current levels of about 400 parts per million (ppm) could rise to more than 600 parts per million (ppm) in millions of years. Of course, this assumes humans stop burning fossil fuels, but otherwise we would see this number much sooner. ”
Dr Farnsworth, who is also a visiting professor at the Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER) at the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: Carbon dioxide levels could be twice his current levels. The Sun is also expected to emit about 2.5% more radiation, and since supercontinents are primarily located in the hot and humid tropics, much of the Earth could face temperatures between 40 and 70 °C. There is a gender.
“This study also shows that worlds within the solar system’s so-called ‘habitable zone’ are the most hospitable for humans, depending on whether the continents are scattered, as they are today, or within one large supercontinent. It also highlights that there may not be.”
Relevance to exoplanet research
Additionally, this study shows the importance of tectonics and continental placement when conducting research on planets outside our solar system, called exoplanets. Earth will still be within her habitable zone after 250 million years, but for mammals, the formation of supercontinents with elevated carbon dioxide will make much of the world uninhabitable. The findings suggest that the layout of a distant world’s land mass may be an important factor in determining how livable that world is for humans.
Reference: “Climatic extremes likely to cause extinction of terrestrial mammals during the next supercontinent meeting” (Alexander Farnsworth, YT Eunice Lo, Paul J. Valdes, Jonathan R. Buzan, Benjamin JW Mills, Andrew S. Merdith , Christopher R. Scotese, Hannah R) Wakeford, September 25, 2023. natural earth science.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01259-3
The research was carried out as part of a UK Research, Innovation and Natural Environment Research Council (UKRI NERC)-funded project examining the supercontinent’s climate and mass extinctions.