upcoming events:
- Monday: People’s Bank of China MLF, US markets closed for MLK Day, BoC economic outlook survey.
- Tuesday: UK Labor Market Report, Canadian CPI, Fed Waller.
- Wednesday: China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US NAHB Housing Market Index.
- Thursday: Australian Labor Market Report, ECB Minutes, US Building Permits and Housing Starts, US Unemployment Insurance Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.
- Friday: Japanese CPI, UK retail sales, Canadian retail sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
Monday
We will know whether the People’s Bank of China will carry out its MLF operation on Monday and decide whether to lower interest rates or keep them unchanged at 2.50%. There is some expectations A 10bps rate cut is scheduled for tomorrow, which will set the stage for a rate cut in LPR rates as well.. The latest Chinese inflation figures continue to show deflationary pressures, giving the central bank plenty of room to ease policy further.
people’s bank
Tuesday
The UK unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2% previously. The average return excluding bonuses is 6.6% compared to 7.3% previously, and the average return including bonuses is 6.8% compared to 7.2% previously. This report is unlikely to change anything for the central bank as it continues to favor a ‘wait and see’ approach; Market pricing is certainly influenced by data The UK CPI report will be published the next day with further details.
UK unemployment rate
Canada’s CPI YoY is expected to be 3.3% vs. 3.1%, while month-on-month is seen at -0.3% vs. 0.1%. The central bank is focused on underlying inflation indicators (common average, median, and trimmed average), and although interest rates are moving closer to its target range of 1% to 3%, Macklem said it will wait to see how things go. Ta. Further progress on both inflation and wage growth. As a reminder, the last report went in the opposite direction, with underlying inflation indicators rising and wage growth accelerating.
Canada’s anti-inflation measures
Given the recent aggressive monetary easing, it’s notable that the Fed’s Waller will be speaking at Brookings on economics and monetary policy, followed by a question-and-answer session. Waller is a key member of the FOMC because he is a “leading indicator” of changes in Fed policy.. He first mentioned QT in December 2021 and first mentioned rate cuts in November 2023.
Fed Waller
Wednesday
UK CPI Y/Y is expected to be 3.8% vs. 3.9%, and month-on-month is expected to be 0.2% vs. -0.2%. Core CPI YoY is expected to be 4.9% vs. 5.1% previously, and while there is no consensus on the month-on-month figure, the previous release indicated a -0.3% decline. Also, The report will not affect the BoE’s February meeting, but it will certainly influence market pricing. The first rate cut is scheduled for May, with a total of 125 bps expected to be cut by the end of the year.
UK Core CPI YoY
U.S. retail sales intensity is expected to be 0.4% versus 0.3% previously, while the non-automotive index is expected to be 0.2% versus 0.2% previously. Also, keep an eye on the control group, as it is considered a better indicator of consumer spending and has consistently outperformed expectations for several months.
US retail sales YoY
Thursday
Australia’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%, with 18,000 jobs added in December compared to 61,500 in November. This report has nothing to do with the February RBA meeting. However, a weak report could raise expectations for rate cuts following recent policy failures, which would impact market pricing. Australia monthly CPI data.
australia unemployment rate
U.S. unemployment claims remain one of the most important announcements each week because they are a timely indicator of the state of the labor market. Initial claims continue to hover around the cycle low, but continuing claims after reaching a new cycle high have started to trend downwards. The consensus for this week is 207,000 initial claims compared to 202,000 previously, while there is no estimate available at the time of writing for continuing claims, but last week’s figure is 1,834,000 compared to 1,868,000 previously. It was a matter.
U.S. unemployment insurance claims
Friday
Japan’s core CPI YoY is expected to be 2.3% (previously 2.5%). In Japan, major inflation indicators are steadily easing thanks to energy deflation, but core-core indicators, which exclude food and energy prices, are slowing down. The Tokyo CPI, which is considered a leading indicator of the national CPI, has fallen further recently, and the growth rate of average cash income has slowed significantly more than expected. As a result, the conditions sought by the Bank of Japan have not materialized, and expectations for monetary policy normalization have faded away..
Japan’s core core CPI year-on-year change