It’s been an amazing year for the space industry, and while we all know by now that progress is not linear, we are very confident that 2024 will be even more amazing.
This year has been tough for many space companies, and we’re not trying to sugarcoat that with our optimism. The world of zero interest rates is officially over; Cash has become more expensive and fundraising has become more difficult. However, 2023 has also produced a number of tailwinds that we believe will make next year one of the most eventful yet.
Here’s a short list of what we’re most excited about in the coming year. This is TechCrunch, so the list skews toward venture-backed startups; Keep that in mind before you complain about the absence of Artemis II.
More spacecraft tests
SpaceX had a historic year this year, and not just because it carried out nearly 100 launches of its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. The company also launched Starship — the most powerful launch vehicle ever — not once, but twice.
The first test took place in April. The second is in November. Both ended in mid-air explosions and both failed to complete the full mission profile: sending the upper stage (also called Starship) on a trip halfway around the world with a landing in the Pacific Ocean, and landing the Super Heavy booster in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, both missions were profound successes.
Part of that has to do with SpaceX’s culture of improving hardware quickly and iteratively. During the six-month period between the two launches, SpaceX implemented a large number of improvements to the ground infrastructure and launch vehicle. This included an improved launch pad design, water deluge system and Raptor engine upgrades. These changes helped the spacecraft fly farther the second time around; Even more impressive is that the company performed a hot test stage, a method of separating the rocket’s two stages by lighting up the upper stage’s engines while the booster is still attached and running its engines.
We expect to see further improvements and a higher testing cadence next year. We wouldn’t even be surprised if they could pull off a full orbital flight plan.
Historical landing missions on the moon
More private companies will attempt to land spacecraft on the moon next year than ever before, and by a significant margin. We’re excited to see companies including Astrobotic, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and ispace all taking their chances. So far, only four countries have landed spacecraft on the moon, so if one company succeeds, it will make history.
2024 will begin with the launch of Intuitive Machines and Astrobotic. Right now, it seems very likely that both will attempt to land in the same week, the third week of February. Firefly is targeting to launch its Blue Ghost lander sometime in the third quarter, while ispace is aiming for its mission late in the year.
Demonstrations of advanced satellite operations
In the broadest possible terms, a large portion of space startups are interested in increasing the number of things a satellite can do in space. A good example of this is so-called rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), which occur when two spacecraft intentionally maneuver to dock or interact with each other. Another hot area of satellite operations involves in-space manufacturing and satellite reentry.
Next year, we expect to see more demonstrations from startups looking to implement cutting-edge satellite operations. Off the top of our heads, there are a few things to look forward to (although this is by no means an exhaustive list):
- True Anomaly, a defense-focused space startup, will demonstrate an RPO using two of its Jackal satellites early next year
- Space logistics startup Atomos Space will launch its first two orbital transfer vehicles, which could eventually help put satellites back into orbit.
- Japanese company Astroscale is teaming up with Rocket Lab to launch a spacecraft that will conduct an orbital debris removal demonstration
- Varda Space Industries will bring home the first in-space manufacturing spacecraft, which successfully produced crystals of the drug ritonavir in orbit.
- Impulse Space, a startup founded by former SpaceX propulsion expert Tom Mueller, will launch two additional missions for its Mira spacecraft for last-mile orbital delivery and satellite constellation deployment.
More rocket tests from newcomers and established players
We’ve already mentioned SpaceX, but it’s not the only game in town. 2024 should be full of exciting tests and new developments from other companies looking to grab their share of the launch market. We’re especially excited about the first launches — of Blue Origin’s New Glenn, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, and Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser — and getting updates from Stoke Space and Relativity, both of which have rockets that won’t be launched until later. From this contract. We’ll also look forward to the second flight test of ABL Space System’s RS1 rocket.