In January 2031, the International Space Station (ISS) will be decommissioned. NASA plans to deorbit the station and burn it up in Earth’s atmosphere over a very remote region of the Pacific Ocean. It will be the end of an era. There has been a continuous human presence in orbit since its launch in November 2000. This is not the only space station in existence, so we hope this is not the end of this unbroken record, but it is the only space station that the United States currently has access to. So what is NASA planning and who will still be in space when the ISS crashes in a few years?
China’s space station, Tiangong
Currently, China’s Tiangong Space Station is the only space base in permanent orbit. Construction began in April 2021 and consists of three modules. It was announced this year that the base, which is currently one-third the volume of the ISS, will double in size from 2027 with the addition of three more modules. Tiangong is expected to last at least 10 years. However, it is unlikely that China will continue to crew Tiangong into the 2030s, especially given the addition of new modules later this decade.
If you’re a quick mathematician, you may have noticed that this means each country’s space station could continue to exist in space for several more years before it runs out.
private space station
This is where private space companies come into play. If you want a more literal continuity between the ISS and humanity’s presence in space, you could consider the Axiom Station. Axiom Space plans to send modules to the ISS to conduct commercial space operations. Once the ISS is decommissioned, Axiom Space will detach and simply continue running in its orbit.
The modules that make up the station have a variety of functions, from a more traditional space laboratory to a manufacturing facility and even a recording studio. The first module is scheduled to launch at the end of 2025 and will house four astronauts. Once detached from the ISS, it will carry six modules and can accommodate a crew of eight.
Russia’s new space station
Another literal departure from the ISS will be Russia, and perhaps the Russian portion. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western governments’ sanctions against Russia, the former Soviet state announced it would leave the ISS after 2024 and start its own station in 2027. This no longer seems to be exactly assumed. At least not on this schedule. Russia has agreed to remain part of the ISS until 2028.
The first module of the planned Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS) is for the Russian portion of the ISS, which has many problems due to aging facilities. The module, called NEM-1, is currently scheduled for launch in 2027, a second launch in 2028, and is expected to be completed with seven modules in 2035.
The ROSS station will orbit in a sun-synchronous orbit, meaning it is close to the poles, allowing for faster access to the station from Russia compared to the ISS. It’s unclear how close this is to reality, but Russian space agency Roscosmos launched a moon mission this summer without much announcement.
moon gateway
Speaking of the Moon, the International Space Station’s next big project is the Lunar Gateway. This is a space station placed in lunar orbit as a “gateway” to the Moon, and possibly a mission to Mars. From the end of his decade, this will be joined by his current ISS members: NASA, ESA, JAXA, and CSA (the US, European, Japanese, and Canadian space agencies, respectively). The Gateway is seen as playing a key role in building and operating a base on the moon, but it is not intended to permanently populate deep space.
Humanity will likely continue to have its own off-planet universe for some time to come, but a new space station will be needed by the late 2030s to keep that record intact. India is considering it and there are a lot of private companies interested in doing the same. Perhaps when the ISS is gone, people will miss it and start building another one.